Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:16:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CA
0xca70…4867
world · 36 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$23 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$20 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$68
Realized−$20
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses13 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions4
Markets (closed)32 / 36
History coverage134d
Avg bet$350
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 4 History 32 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$19
14 days−$14
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $69 $68 −$2 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 66¢ 52¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-22%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 89¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 74¢ 55¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $155 +$3 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $74 −$17 -22%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 11 $106 −$4 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $83 +$2 +2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $156 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $616 −$3 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $150 −$1 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $210 −$1 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $114 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $141 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $161 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $315 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $324 −$3 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $19 +$1 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $156 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $317 +$7 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $338 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $140 +$3 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 29 $9 −$1 -11%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $60 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $317 +$1 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $68 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $5 $0 +7%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $375 $0 +0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 24 $2,632 −$9 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $911 +$1 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $1,003 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $911 +$1 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $437 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 30 $189 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 44% −$8
world 30% −$12
other 23% −$1
politics 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $69 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $13 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $13 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $27 9h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $2 13h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $56 13h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 27¢ $22 16h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 27¢ $53 16h
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $102 2d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $106 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $85 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $83 2d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $156 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $72 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $85 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $137 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $137 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $84 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $65 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $150 4d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $173 6d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $174 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $17 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $141 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $127 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.8% -12.1% 25% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 25 -0.6% -10.1% 44% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 31 -0.5% -10.0% 42% 0% -9.7%
all 32 -0.5% -10.0% 41% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.41 · official $67.50 (match) · 192 history records