Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:25:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CA 0xca71…cf3e crypto 793 markets active 1h ago coverage 163d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 163d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,316 (-2%) realized −$4,349 · open +$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate53%417W / 371L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$304per market
Trades / day17.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days+$12
14 days+$36
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% −$2,659
crypto 10% −$296
politics 1% +$65
other 1% −$120
tech 1% +$68
finance 0% −$31
sports 0% −$43
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +23.1% +11.4% 52% 44% -7.4%
≤30d 70 +5.4% -4.6% 56% 27% -10.8%
≤90d 341 -2.6% -11.9% 63% 17% -10.4%
all 788 -10.5% -19.0% 53% 20% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 20% -10.7%
10% -26.7% 15% -19.2%
15% -33.8% 10% -27.0%
20% -40.3% 9% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$21 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$4,349
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses417 / 371
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)788 / 793
History coverage163d ⚠
Avg bet$304
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 788 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 97¢ $62 $97 +$35 (+57%)
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-90%)
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? No 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $24 −$20 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? Jun 19 $104 +$2 +2%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $18 −$9 -52%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $78 −$1 -1%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$13 +124%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +34%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$10 -47%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$4 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 16 $20 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $48 +$11 +23%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$7 +344%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$8 -40%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$12 -24%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$24 +93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$6 +184%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 +$13 +414%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +60%
Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in Jun 13 $1 +$1 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET Jun 13 $18 −$11 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $19 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET Jun 11 $21 $0 +2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $25 −$1 -4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $35 +$8 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 11 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $9 +$1 +6%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? May 30 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4PM ET May 30 $21 −$15 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3PM ET May 30 $52 +$4 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2PM ET May 30 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1PM ET May 30 $73 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12PM ET May 30 $20 +$2 +10%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May? May 30 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11AM ET May 30 $31 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 30? May 30 $40 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9AM ET May 30 $33 −$1 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 30 $17 +$1 +5%
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Up 42¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Up 42¢ $9 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $24 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Up 40¢ $104 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 22h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 76¢ $76 23h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $78 23h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 26h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 26h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 26h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $4 47h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 41¢ $11 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 75¢ $0 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 75¢ $1 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 75¢ $1 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 75¢ $1 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 75¢ $3 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 75¢ $3 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 74¢ $10 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 88¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 24¢ $60 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 17¢ $48 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 38¢ $12 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 39¢ $8 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.48 · official $97.48 (match) · 3500 history records