Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:11:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CA 0xca74…0365 other 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 196d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$554 (-5%) realized −$554 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate93%28W / 2L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$349per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$234now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$284
other 32% −$273
crypto 14% +$2
tech 3% +$1
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 0% -8.0%
all 30 -6.0% -14.9% 93% 0% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 0% -14.1%
10% -23.1% 0% -22.3%
15% -30.5% 0% -29.8%
20% -37.3% 0% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$309 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$234
Realized−$554
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses28 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage196d
Avg bet$349
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $134 $134 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in May? Jun 01 $233 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 9? May 10 $233 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 21? Apr 22 $233 $0 +0%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 08 $233 $0 +0%
Celtics vs. Heat Apr 02 $233 +$1 +0%
Jazz vs. Nuggets Mar 28 $211 +$22 +10%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on March 25? Mar 26 $210 $0 +0%
Suns vs. Raptors Mar 14 $1,058 +$1 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of March 9 above $245? Mar 14 $1,058 +$1 +0%
Pistons vs. Nets Mar 11 $1,056 +$2 +0%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Mar 10 $1,032 +$24 +2%
Rockets vs. Spurs Mar 09 $1,031 +$1 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of March 2 above $2.50? Mar 07 $369 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $1.00 end of February? Feb 28 $150 $0 +0%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 4 Winner Feb 27 $214 +$4 +2%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of February 16 above $3.00? Feb 21 $364 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of February 9 above $3.00? Feb 14 $364 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) finish week of February 2 above $790? Feb 07 $363 +$1 +0%
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be greater than Feb 05 $362 +$1 +0%
Infinex FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jan 20 $279 −$279 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) Jan 13 $339 −$339 -100%
Will donk finish in the top 5 of the HLTV Top 20 Players of 2025? Jan 11 $125 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 02 $52 +$1 +1%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 02 $62 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 02 $93 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Jan 02 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $102 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $384 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $275 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $134 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in May? BUY No 100¢ $233 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $233 50d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $233 67d
Bulls vs. Wizards BUY Bulls 100¢ $233 79d
Celtics vs. Heat BUY Celtics 100¢ $233 85d
Jazz vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 100¢ $171 90d
Jazz vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 53¢ $10 90d
Jazz vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 70¢ $30 90d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $210 94d
Suns vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 100¢ $1,058 104d
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of March 9 above $245? BUY No 100¢ $1,058 105d
Pistons vs. Nets BUY Pistons 100¢ $1,056 107d
Nuggets vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 98¢ $1,032 108d
Rockets vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 100¢ $1,031 109d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of March 2 above $2.50? BUY Yes 100¢ $369 112d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $1.00 end of February? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 119d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 4 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 98¢ $214 119d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of February 16 above $3.00? BUY Yes 100¢ $364 126d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of February 9 above $3.00? BUY Yes 100¢ $364 132d
Will Meta (META) finish week of February 2 above $790? BUY No 100¢ $363 140d
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be greater than BUY No 100¢ $362 150d
Infinex FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 156d
Infinex FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 31¢ $277 156d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) BUY Invictus Gaming 52¢ $339 163d
Will donk finish in the top 5 of the HLTV Top 20 Players of 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $125 171d
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $100 182d
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? BUY No 99¢ $51 182d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 99¢ $93 182d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $233.88 · official $233.88 (match) · 68 history records