Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:30:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca77…f088 crypto 1339 markets active 0h ago coverage 279d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 279d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$192 (-1%) realized −$192 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%666W / 666L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$92
14 days+$274
30 days+$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$116
sports 22% −$68
other 4% −$103
world 2% −$96
economics 1% −$109
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +27.1% +15.0% 55% 49% -2.8%
≤30d 322 +6.5% -3.6% 54% 52% -7.4%
≤90d 926 -3.4% -12.6% 50% 49% -9.9%
all 1332 -2.4% -11.7% 50% 48% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 48% -12.0%
10% -20.2% 45% -20.4%
15% -27.9% 40% -28.1%
20% -35.0% 33% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$9 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

279d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$192
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses666 / 666
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1332 / 1339
History coverage279d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1332 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$21 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$10 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $136 +$74 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $206 +$122 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $62 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$11 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $73 −$70 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $52 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$12 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $29 +$17 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $17 +$9 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$8 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $24 −$6 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $58 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$14 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$10 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $15 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $27 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $11 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $34 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $8 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $15 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records