Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:16:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
CA 0xca78…b3a8 sports 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$211 (+1%) realized +$165 · open +$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%22W / 35L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$273per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$191est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,382now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,005
7 days+$928
14 days+$920
30 days+$920
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$60
tech 44% +$423
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +27.5% +15.3% 64% 64% +49.9%
≤30d 36 +3.1% -6.7% 42% 42% -3.1%
≤90d 57 -7.6% -16.4% 39% 39% -6.8%
all 57 -7.6% -16.4% 39% 39% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 39% -6.8%
10% -24.4% 37% -15.7%
15% -31.7% 33% -23.8%
20% -38.4% 33% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$245 vs −$141 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$1,382
Realized+$165
Unrealized+$46
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses22 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$191
Open positions9
Markets (closed)57 / 66
History coverage73d
Avg bet$273
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Acend 31¢ 62¢ $384 $768 +$384 (+100%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 29¢ 50¢ $125 $218 +$93 (+74%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 41¢ 66¢ $125 $204 +$79 (+63%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 36¢ 33¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 29¢ 20¢ $100 $70 −$30 (-30%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Over 20¢ 8¢ $50 $21 −$29 (-58%)
SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30? Tesla 6¢ 1¢ $78 $8 −$70 (-89%)
Valorant: KRÜ Blaze vs BESTIA - Map 1 Winner KRÜ Blaze 32¢ 0¢ $359 $1 −$358 (-100%)
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C FOKUS 56¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 23 $172 +$93 +54%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $447 +$532 +119%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $309 +$310 +100%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? Jun 23 $46 −$15 -34%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 23 $31 +$23 +76%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? Jun 23 $147 +$32 +22%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? Jun 23 $52 −$4 -8%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? Jun 23 $101 +$34 +34%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Vitality (+3.5) Jun 19 $34 −$34 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $14 +$20 +139%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $64 −$62 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $781 −$768 -98%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: KOLESIE (-3.5) vs GenOne (+3.5) Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $134 −$132 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $240 +$191 +80%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $281 +$186 +66%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $62 −$61 -98%
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra Jun 16 $260 −$64 -24%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? Jun 16 $754 −$272 -36%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 16 $357 +$489 +137%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $95 +$432 +457%
SpaceX IPO: Open Up/Down on Second Day Jun 15 $107 −$106 -99%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $294 −$289 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $252 −$246 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Jun 13 $152 −$150 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $242 −$236 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $355 −$350 -98%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+6.5) Jun 12 $203 −$200 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $821 −$244 -30%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $4,349 +$992 +23%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $243 +$214 +88%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $307 +$458 +149%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $330 +$616 +186%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $631 −$201 -32%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $150 −$115 -76%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $160 −$127 -79%
Dota 2: Aurora vs ex-HEROIC (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Gentle Mates - Map 2 Winner May 11 $101 +$74 +73%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S May 11 $124 −$122 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner May 11 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest (BO3) - LCS Regular Season May 11 $166 +$160 +96%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner May 10 $267 −$248 -93%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner May 10 $308 −$128 -42%
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Gentle Mates - Map 2 Winner May 10 $376 −$69 -18%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 10 $161 +$161 +100%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 10 $51 +$55 +107%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner May 10 $143 −$142 -99%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner May 10 $98 +$151 +155%
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner May 10 $87 −$85 -98%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner May 10 $51 +$133 +263%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 26¢ $143 43m
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 29¢ $128 45m
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $127 45m
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 34¢ $249 47m
England vs. Ghana: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $51 58m
England vs. Ghana: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 29¢ $102 58m
England vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 36¢ $102 58m
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C SELL MIR 100¢ $1,828 1h
Valorant: KRÜ Blaze vs BESTIA - Map 1 Winner BUY KRÜ Blaze 40¢ $49 1h
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY MIR 29¢ $59 1h
Valorant: KRÜ Blaze vs BESTIA - Map 1 Winner BUY KRÜ Blaze 36¢ $71 1h
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY MIR 29¢ $51 1h
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY MIR 26¢ $65 1h
Valorant: KRÜ Blaze vs BESTIA - Map 1 Winner BUY KRÜ Blaze 30¢ $246 1h
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY MIR 54¢ $357 1h
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C SELL FOKUS 49¢ $303 1h
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY MIR 48¢ $278 1h
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY FOKUS 56¢ $371 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $265 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $980 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Nigma Galaxy 64¢ $172 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 45¢ $447 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $618 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 49¢ $309 3h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $30 3h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on SELL Yes 7¢ $54 3h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $88 3h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $48 3h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $90 3h
SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30? BUY Tesla 8¢ $2 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,381.55 · official $1,381.55 (match) · 165 history records