Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:24:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
CA 0xca7e…5e23 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 27d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+5%) realized +$8 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$16
14 days+$9
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$6
crypto 5% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +30.9% +18.4% 100% 100% +18.3%
≤30d 7 -20.0% -27.6% 57% 57% -4.3%
≤90d 7 -20.0% -27.6% 57% 57% -4.3%
all 7 -20.0% -27.6% 57% 57% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.6% 57% -4.3%
10% -34.5% 43% -13.4%
15% -40.9% 29% -21.8%
20% -46.6% 14% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage27d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 55¢ $28 $25 −$3 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $23 +$6 +26%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $16 +$7 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $13 +$3 +21%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +67%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $29 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 79¢ $23 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $16 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $13 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 13d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.20 · official $25.20 (match) · 12 history records