Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:04:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CA 0xca7e…58cc other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 290d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$764 (+12%) realized +$786 · open −$22
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate48%10W / 11L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$59
7 days+$38
14 days+$158
30 days+$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$454
sports 15% +$163
crypto 12% +$56
politics 0% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-40.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -45.3% -50.5% 25% 25% -6.6%
≤30d 8 -37.0% -43.0% 38% 38% -0.2%
≤90d 10 -22.0% -29.4% 50% 50% +7.3%
all 21 -34.3% -40.5% 48% 33% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.5% 33% +2.8%
10% -46.2% 29% -7.1%
15% -51.4% 14% -16.0%
20% -56.2% 5% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$37 · ×2.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.64 per $1 lost it wins $2.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

290d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized+$786
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses10 / 11
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)21 / 27
History coverage290d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 47¢ 46¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 24¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+26%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-96%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 16¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $112 −$59 -53%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$4 -43%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,004 +$151 +15%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $304 +$158 +52%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $200 +$82 +41%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $499 +$173 +35%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 28? Jan 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101? Jan 25 $1,010 −$20 -2%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) Oct 28 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 27 $23 −$23 -100%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Oct 27 $1,021 +$24 +2%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) Oct 14 $600 +$203 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 10? Oct 14 $548 +$270 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 9AM ET Sep 24 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 3AM ET Sep 22 $140 −$140 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on Septembe Sep 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker? Sep 21 $199 +$10 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 45m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 25¢ $52 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 3h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 47¢ $51 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? AND Will BUY 22¢ $25 43h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $6 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,156 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,004 6d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 55¢ $51 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $31 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 10d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $11 12d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 96¢ $254 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 79¢ $208 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 13d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $51 74d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $6 74d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $6 74d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 74d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $10 74d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $6 74d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $20 74d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 39¢ $7 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.93 · official $117.93 (match) · 66 history records