trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤30d | 7 | +2.7% | -7.1% | 86% | 14% | -9.6% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +2.3% | -7.4% | 89% | 11% | -9.6% |
| all | 20 | -8.5% | -17.2% | 85% | 5% | -9.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -17.2% | 5% | -9.5% |
| 10% | -25.2% | 0% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -32.4% | 0% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -39.0% | 0% | -33.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $8,595 | $8,591 | −$4 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? | Jun 18 | $8,602 | −$10 | -0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Denver be 61°F or below on May 28? | May 27 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates in May? | May 27 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont | May 27 | $3 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 19? | May 27 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting? | May 27 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Co | May 27 | $4 | +$1 | +15% |
| Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar) | Apr 19 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? | Apr 19 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 | Mar 08 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of February 2 above $310? | Mar 08 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? | Mar 08 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Feb 06 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)? | Feb 06 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | Feb 06 | $3 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? | Feb 06 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025? | Jan 22 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 30? | Dec 30 | $7,421 | +$10 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 December 22-28? | Dec 29 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 23? | Dec 29 | $1 | $0 | +0% |