Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:07:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca81…d216 world 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 403d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate37%14W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$4
other 21% −$2
politics 7% −$10
culture 3% $0
tech 2% $0
weather 2% $0
economics 2% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -12.0% -20.3% 33% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 18 -1.7% -11.1% 28% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 18 -1.7% -11.1% 28% 0% -9.4%
all 38 -3.9% -13.0% 37% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 0% -10.2%
10% -21.4% 0% -18.8%
15% -29.0% 0% -26.7%
20% -35.9% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

403d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses14 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage403d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $6 −$2 -38%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $44 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $43 +$1 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $44 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $58 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $43 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $40 $0 -1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $80 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $37 +$3 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $40 +$1 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $36 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $36 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $18 −$1 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $6 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $37 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $81 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 26 $18 $0 +1%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 23 $6 $0 -1%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe Jun 21 $6 $0 -0%
US military action against Iran by Friday? Jun 20 $6 $0 +6%
Will Pascal Siakam Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 19 $2 $0 -5%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jun 19 $6 $0 -7%
Will Elon tweet 205–219 times June 13–20? Jun 17 $7 $0 -2%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 04 $5 $0 +1%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 04 $1 $0 -12%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 03 $13 $0 -0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%? May 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? May 28 $26 $0 +1%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? May 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 22 $25 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 66°F or below on May May 20 $25 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 19 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $38 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 3h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $8 28h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $36 30h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $44 32h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $44 38h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $43 40h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 9d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 9d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 9d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $39 9d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $29 9d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $10 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $40 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $40 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $43 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $43 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $29 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $11 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $40 11d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $43 12d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $43 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 83¢ $7 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 83¢ $27 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 83¢ $7 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $37 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 62¢ $41 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 61¢ $40 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 66¢ $40 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.64 · official $37.64 (match) · 138 history records