Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:35:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CA 0xca81…f2ab sports 741 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 97d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$33 (+0%) realized +$27 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate64%473W / 264L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day23.7pace
Fees−$908est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1,153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$567
7 days+$747
14 days−$36
30 days−$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$1,067
other 12% +$381
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +15.0% +4.0% 78% 56% +14.0%
≤30d 61 -2.8% -12.1% 56% 48% -10.6%
≤90d 683 -12.1% -20.5% 62% 24% -13.5%
all 737 +3.9% -6.0% 64% 28% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.0% 28% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -15.0% 26% -18.8%
15% -23.2% 22% -26.7%
20% -30.8% 18% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$104 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$1,153
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses473 / 264
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$908
Open positions4
Markets (closed)737 / 741
History coverage97d ⚠
Avg bet$122
Trades / day23.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 737 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner Inner Circle Esports 59¢ 100¢ $295 $500 +$205 (+69%)
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Inner Circle Esports 56¢ 100¢ $280 $500 +$220 (+78%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Karmine Corp 74¢ 77¢ $74 $77 +$3 (+4%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Karmine Corp 74¢ 76¢ $74 $76 +$2 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Sashi Esport 41¢ 0¢ $205 $0 −$205 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 121 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
FaZe roster change Before GTA VI? Jun 25 $1,670 +$330 +20%
Game 2: Any Player Penta Kill? Jun 25 $19 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 25 $139 +$161 +116%
Game 2: Any Player Penta Kill? Jun 25 $43 +$2 +6%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $270 +$230 +85%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $158 −$158 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $368 +$132 +36%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $149 +$101 +67%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $276 −$276 -100%
HSBC Championships: Completed Match: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar Jun 14 $85 +$15 +18%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo Jun 13 $7 +$20 +270%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $412 −$412 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $122 +$128 +104%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $148 +$102 +70%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $168 −$167 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $95 +$155 +163%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $105 +$145 +138%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $70 −$70 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $310 −$310 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $135 −$135 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $48 −$47 -98%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $145 −$145 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $414 +$252 +61%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $206 +$44 +21%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $186 +$64 +34%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $204 +$296 +146%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $155 +$344 +222%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $165 −$165 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $520 −$520 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $80 −$80 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs PCIFIC - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $410 +$90 +22%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $320 +$180 +56%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $315 +$185 +59%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $222 −$222 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 11 $189 +$18 +9%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $169 −$169 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $8 +$21 +257%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters G Jun 10 $330 +$170 +52%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 10 $222 +$78 +35%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $81 −$81 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 10 $157 −$155 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 09 $858 +$17 +2%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $132 +$117 +89%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $297 +$103 +35%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $130 +$70 +54%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $137 −$137 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $81 −$81 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Sashi Esport 41¢ $205 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Inner Circle Esports 56¢ $284 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 59¢ $148 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 59¢ $148 2h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 74¢ $74 7h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 74¢ $74 7h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY ECHO 46¢ $38 11h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY ECHO 46¢ $53 11h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY ECHO 47¢ $47 11h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY ECHO 46¢ $1 11h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner BUY Sharks 54¢ $251 32h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner BUY Sharks 54¢ $14 32h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner BUY Sharks 54¢ $2 32h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner BUY Sharks 54¢ $2 32h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 63¢ $158 32h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 21¢ $30 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 21¢ $22 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 69¢ $9 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 69¢ $4 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 69¢ $11 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 69¢ $148 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $165 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 12¢ $31 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $149 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $276 10d
HSBC Championships: Completed Match: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar BUY No 85¢ $85 12d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P BUY Team Heretics Academy 59¢ $139 12d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P BUY Team Heretics Academy 59¢ $8 12d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 20¢ $100 12d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 27¢ $80 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,153.24 · official $1,153.24 (match) · 3500 history records