Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:22:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca82…fcfe sports 148 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,815 (-7%) realized −$5,817 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate75%110W / 37L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$583per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$622est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$260now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$647
7 days−$8,244
14 days−$8,769
30 days−$7,689
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$5,556
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -5.5% -14.5% 69% 62% -48.8%
≤30d 60 -1.8% -11.1% 67% 63% -23.8%
≤90d 89 -0.8% -10.3% 72% 67% -20.4%
all 147 +3.1% -6.7% 75% 68% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 68% -15.4%
10% -15.6% 51% -23.5%
15% -23.8% 27% -30.9%
20% -31.2% 7% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$712) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$147 vs −$586 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$260
Realized−$5,817
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses110 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$622
Open positions1
Markets (closed)147 / 148
History coverage132d
Avg bet$583
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 69¢ 69¢ $258 $260 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $194 +$66 +34%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $516 +$177 +34%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $738 +$284 +38%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $617 +$120 +19%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 17 $504 +$114 +23%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $706 −$698 -99%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $393 +$86 +22%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - NODWIN C Jun 15 $541 +$79 +15%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 15 $503 +$38 +8%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4,983 −$4,964 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $3,382 −$1,957 -58%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $4,523 −$2,177 -48%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,414 +$589 +42%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $2,001 −$1,977 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $250 −$205 -82%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $520 +$249 +48%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1,151 +$213 +18%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1,148 +$588 +51%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $367 +$204 +56%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $395 +$121 +31%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1,151 +$244 +21%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $497 −$488 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $233 −$229 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $1,102 −$323 -29%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $503 +$550 +109%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,500 −$153 -10%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $684 +$65 +10%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 07 $377 +$180 +48%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $241 +$82 +34%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $505 +$230 +46%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $320 +$126 +39%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $238 +$83 +35%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $164 +$72 +44%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $331 +$180 +54%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $1,455 +$269 +18%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $269 +$167 +62%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 02 $751 +$269 +36%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $184 +$85 +46%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $752 +$182 +24%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $228 −$224 -98%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $57 −$57 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St Jun 02 $622 −$262 -42%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $254 −$250 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 G Jun 01 $241 +$110 +46%
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 01 $896 +$249 +28%
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League S Jun 01 $140 −$8 -6%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs OG - Map 1 Winner May 31 $670 +$208 +31%
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner May 31 $454 +$216 +48%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Tricked - Map 1 Winner May 30 $930 +$445 +48%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 2 Winner May 28 $1,735 +$379 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 69¢ $260 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 74¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 73¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 73¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 74¢ $193 4h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA - Map 2 Winner SELL K27 100¢ $193 4h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA - Map 2 Winner BUY K27 71¢ $138 6h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA - Map 2 Winner BUY K27 75¢ $378 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 71¢ $1 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 70¢ $1 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 72¢ $422 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 71¢ $315 25h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 83¢ $617 33h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 80¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl SELL Rooster 78¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 81¢ $503 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 62¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 62¢ $705 4d
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL 100 Thieves 100¢ $480 4d
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - NODWIN C SELL 100 Thieves 100¢ $226 4d
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 83¢ $173 4d
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - NODWIN C SELL 100 Thieves 94¢ $173 4d
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 84¢ $18 4d
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - NODWIN C SELL 100 Thieves 90¢ $18 4d
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 83¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 82¢ $79 4d
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 81¢ $11 4d
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 78¢ $60 4d
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 78¢ $11 4d
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 80¢ $40 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $259.83 · official $259.87 (match) · 863 history records