trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | 17¢ | 22¢ | $7,346 | $9,481 | +$2,135 (+29%) |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Yes | 33¢ | 28¢ | $300 | $249 | −$51 (-17%) |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $28 | $0 | −$28 (-100%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 29¢ | 0¢ | $278 | $0 | −$278 (-100%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $300 | $0 | −$300 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 23 | $5,123 | +$1,924 | +38% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | May 09 | $990 | +$300 | +30% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? | Apr 20 | $28 | −$28 | -100% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Apr 20 | $2,546 | +$1,641 | +64% |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | Apr 17 | $221 | +$5 | +2% |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | Apr 17 | $200 | −$12 | -6% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Apr 16 | $11 | +$14 | +126% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | Apr 16 | $213 | +$73 | +34% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | Apr 16 | $506 | +$311 | +62% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Apr 15 | $2,266 | +$2,281 | +101% |
| Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from April 10 to Apr | Apr 13 | $20 | +$11 | +54% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? | Apr 13 | $118 | −$47 | -40% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Apr 12 | $338 | +$8 | +2% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | Apr 12 | $170 | +$9 | +5% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | Apr 11 | $770 | +$188 | +24% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Apr 08 | $200 | +$388 | +194% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Apr 07 | $37 | +$164 | +444% |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Apr 05 | $200 | −$138 | -69% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | +37.6% | +24.5% | 100% | 100% | +24.5% |
| ≤90d | 18 | +86.7% | +68.9% | 78% | 61% | +48.8% |
| all | 18 | +86.7% | +68.9% | 78% | 61% | +48.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +68.9% | 61% | +48.8% |
| 10% | +52.8% | 61% | +34.6% |
| 15% | +38.0% | 50% | +21.6% |
| 20% | +24.5% | 44% | +9.6% |