Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:24:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca84…6f8d sports 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$2 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate56%44W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$355now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days+$9
14 days−$45
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% −$62
other 37% +$21
crypto 14% $0
politics 7% −$10
world 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +16.3% +5.2% 49% 49% -6.6%
≤30d 78 -4.8% -13.9% 56% 27% -17.9%
≤90d 78 -4.8% -13.9% 56% 27% -17.9%
all 78 -4.8% -13.9% 56% 27% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 27% -17.9%
10% -22.1% 26% -25.7%
15% -29.6% 24% -32.9%
20% -36.5% 23% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$355
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses44 / 34
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions14
Markets (closed)78 / 92
History coverage12d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-1.5) Sweden 45¢ 46¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+3%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? No 57¢ 56¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $45 $43 −$2 (-4%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? No 23¢ 22¢ $31 $30 −$1 (-2%)
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 72¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Canada reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 21¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+17%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 53¢ 54¢ $15 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 34¢ 20¢ $14 $8 −$6 (-41%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 12¢ 4¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $3 +$2 +73%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $3 +$3 +73%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 28 $30 −$29 -98%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $16 −$15 -98%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $9 +$12 +124%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $17 +$5 +33%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $14 +$1 +11%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $4 +$4 +119%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $3 +$2 +70%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $17 +$8 +47%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $3 +$5 +172%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2 +$2 +105%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $22 +$22 +104%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $4 +$3 +71%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $2 +$2 +83%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $8 +$10 +113%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $2 −$2 -99%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 +$22 +414%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 23 $6 −$5 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $6 +$7 +124%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $5 +$8 +146%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $5 +$24 +510%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $2 +$4 +206%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $3 +$3 +97%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $6 −$6 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $4 −$4 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $16 −$4 -24%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $6 −$5 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 22 $2 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 22 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $2 $0 +4%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 $0 +4%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $3 +$3 +101%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY No 23¢ $32 1h
Will Canada reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $30 5h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Sweden 45¢ $46 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 42¢ $46 8h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $46 9h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? BUY No 57¢ $46 10h
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 10h
Will Canada reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 13h
Will Canada reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 13h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 34¢ $14 13h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $14 24h
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $14 24h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Sweden 45¢ $16 27h
Will Colombia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $16 27h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $16 27h
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 70¢ $16 27h
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $16 27h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 47¢ $16 40h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $16 40h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 47¢ $14 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 41¢ $3 2d
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $4 2d
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $4 2d
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $4 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 50¢ $4 2d
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $3 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 3d
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 45¢ $4 3d
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $355.16 · official $355.21 (match) · 175 history records