Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:32:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca85…7453 sports 274 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,264 (-8%) realized −$2,550 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%108W / 165L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$385est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,728
7 days−$2,293
14 days−$2,452
30 days−$2,903
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$2,204
other 16% −$103
crypto 1% −$223
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 -26.2% -33.2% 29% 29% -35.7%
≤30d 257 -8.8% -17.5% 39% 39% -19.7%
≤90d 273 -7.2% -16.0% 40% 40% -17.9%
all 273 -7.2% -16.0% 40% 40% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 40% -17.9%
10% -24.1% 39% -25.8%
15% -31.4% 38% -33.0%
20% -38.1% 36% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$89 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$132
Realized−$2,550
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses108 / 165
Est. fees paid−$385
Open positions1
Markets (closed)273 / 274
History coverage35d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 273 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
O/U 2.5 Rounds Over 60¢ 70¢ $112 $132 +$20 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 141 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $69 +$45 +66%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $35 −$35 -99%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $48 +$20 +42%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Bo Nickal win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $37 +$72 +192%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $89 −$88 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $77 +$50 +64%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $60 −$59 -98%
Will Diego Lopes win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $22 +$37 +170%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $98 −$97 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $98 −$96 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $254 −$249 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $148 −$145 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $101 −$99 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $226 −$223 -98%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $98 +$177 +180%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $148 +$122 +82%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $98 +$283 +289%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $75 +$170 +226%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $66 +$107 +162%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $164 −$161 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 14 $164 −$161 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 14 $115 −$112 -98%
1H Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 13 $98 −$96 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 13 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $99 −$97 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 13 $68 −$66 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $106 −$103 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $50 +$56 +114%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $159 −$115 -72%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $195 −$191 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 13 $99 −$96 -98%
Set Handicap: Giron (-1.5) vs Evans (+1.5) Jun 13 $152 −$150 -98%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $220 −$218 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $50 +$48 +96%
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Sara Saito Jun 13 $51 +$71 +140%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $101 −$99 -99%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $12 −$12 -97%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $50 +$163 +324%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $25 −$24 -96%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5) Jun 13 $121 −$119 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $202 +$217 +108%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 13 $29 −$29 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $21 +$5 +23%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $56 −$55 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 60¢ $113 29m
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $114 33m
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 62¢ $35 1h
O/U 0.5 Rounds BUY Under 39¢ $31 1h
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 59¢ $69 1h
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $69 1h
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 69¢ $48 1h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 28¢ $26 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 53¢ $35 1h
Will Bo Nickal win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $109 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 57¢ $89 2h
Will Bo Nickal win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 33¢ $37 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 100¢ $126 2h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 44¢ $60 2h
Will Diego Lopes win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $59 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 0¢ $1 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $77 2h
Will Diego Lopes win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 36¢ $22 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $98 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $98 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $254 5h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 25¢ $49 7h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $101 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $99 7h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 25¢ $51 8h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 24¢ $48 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $127 8h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $269 8h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $380 8h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 25¢ $98 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.69 · official $131.69 (match) · 450 history records