Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:42:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CA
0xca86…8b19
crypto · 235 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$112 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$173 · open −$10
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized−$173
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses123 / 110
Open positions2
Markets (closed)233 / 235
History coverage17d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 233 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days+$11
14 days−$150
30 days−$173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Down 57¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$19 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$15 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$7 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 10 $15 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$13 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$19 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$13 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$183
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $20 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +5.3% -4.7% 53% 53% -7.4%
≤30d 233 -3.8% -13.0% 53% 49% -17.0%
≤90d 233 -3.8% -13.0% 53% 49% -17.0%
all 233 -3.8% -13.0% 53% 49% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 49% -17.0%
10% -21.3% 46% -25.0%
15% -28.9% 45% -32.2%
20% -35.9% 38% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.84 · official $9.34 (match) · 366 history records