Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:24:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
CA 0xca8f…ce28 other 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 276d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$63 (-0%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate88%28W / 4L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$896per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$102
7 days+$102
14 days+$102
30 days+$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$24
other 23% +$2
politics 7% +$6
world 0% +$1
crypto 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +5.1% -4.9% 100% 0% -4.9%
≤30d 6 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 18 -21.8% -29.3% 78% 0% -9.6%
all 32 +0.1% -9.4% 88% 31% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 31% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 19% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 9% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 6% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,998) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +25% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$43 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

276d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses28 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage276d
Avg bet$896
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,003 +$102 +5%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $2,000 +$4 +0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 02 $2,000 +$2 +0%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 28 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 27 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 26 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants May 23 $1,996 +$4 +0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 21 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-27? May 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-05? May 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-09-21? May 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will France win on 2025-10-13? May 19 $64 −$64 -100%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals May 17 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1,998 +$2 +0%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets May 16 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 16 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $1,994 +$6 +0%
Will Netherlands win on 2025-10-12? Oct 13 $58 +$6 +10%
Will Spain win on 2025-10-11? Oct 12 $50 +$7 +15%
Will France win on 2025-10-10? Oct 11 $52 +$1 +2%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-04? Oct 05 $30 +$7 +22%
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? Oct 04 $1 +$1 +82%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? Oct 04 $93 +$1 +1%
Xi Jinping out before October? Oct 01 $94 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-28? Sep 29 $1 $0 +30%
Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-26? Sep 27 $49 +$6 +12%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-25? Sep 26 $3 +$1 +22%
Will FC Porto win on 2025-09-25? Sep 26 $5 +$4 +85%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-23? Sep 24 $25 +$8 +33%
Will Napoli win on 2025-09-22? Sep 23 $25 +$8 +33%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-20? Sep 21 $50 +$25 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $2,003 1h
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $2,000 14d
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Kansas City Royals 100¢ $2,000 21d
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals BUY New York Yankees 100¢ $1,998 26d
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 100¢ $1,998 27d
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Washington Nationals 100¢ $1,998 28d
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago White Sox 100¢ $1,896 30d
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago White Sox 100¢ $50 30d
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago White Sox 100¢ $50 30d
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins BUY Atlanta Braves 100¢ $1,998 33d
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 100¢ $1,998 36d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 100¢ $1,998 37d
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-16? BUY No 100¢ $647 37d
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-16? BUY No 100¢ $193 37d
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-16? BUY No 100¢ $5 37d
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-16? BUY No 100¢ $11 37d
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-16? BUY No 100¢ $101 37d
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-16? BUY No 100¢ $11 37d
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-16? BUY No 100¢ $999 37d
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-16? BUY No 100¢ $10 37d
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-16? BUY No 100¢ $21 37d
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets BUY New York Yankees 100¢ $1,998 38d
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? BUY No 100¢ $708 38d
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? BUY No 100¢ $1,290 38d
Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 100¢ $1,994 38d
Will France win on 2025-10-13? BUY Yes 76¢ $64 252d
Will Netherlands win on 2025-10-12? BUY Yes 91¢ $58 253d
Will Spain win on 2025-10-11? BUY Yes 87¢ $50 254d
Will France win on 2025-10-10? BUY Yes 98¢ $52 255d
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-05? BUY Yes 65¢ $50 260d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 75 history records