Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CA 0xca90…a8df crypto 763 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$31 (-1%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate52%396W / 367L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day49.8pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65
7 days−$77
14 days−$94
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 51% −$68
crypto 30% −$83
sports 11% +$34
world 7% +$26
other 1% −$4
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 255 -14.6% -22.7% 32% 27% -13.4%
≤30d 417 -21.4% -28.9% 31% 25% -11.7%
≤90d 763 -9.9% -18.5% 52% 20% -10.6%
all 763 -9.9% -18.5% 52% 20% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 20% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -26.3% 16% -19.2%
15% -33.4% 13% -27.0%
20% -39.9% 11% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses396 / 367
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)763 / 763
History coverage56d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day49.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 763 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$4 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $34 −$16 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$22 +332%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$4 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$6 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$14 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$6 +239%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$17 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$4 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$6 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$6 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$4 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$4 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $7 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $12 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $7 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $7 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $6 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $7 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $9 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $7 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $7 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 25m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3158 history records