Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:19:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca93…77a4 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$36 (-12%) realized −$35 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate29%4W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$54
crypto 13% +$26
sports 7% −$12
world 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-42.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -36.9% -42.9% 29% 21% -23.8%
≤30d 14 -36.9% -42.9% 29% 21% -23.8%
≤90d 14 -36.9% -42.9% 29% 21% -23.8%
all 14 -36.9% -42.9% 29% 21% -23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.9% 21% -23.8%
10% -48.4% 21% -31.1%
15% -53.3% 21% -37.7%
20% -57.9% 14% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$10 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$35
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses4 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage3d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -95%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$4 +9%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $58 +$23 +40%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8 −$7 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $39 +$26 +66%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$4 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 +$7 +365%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $55 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 8h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 8h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 96¢ $81 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $58 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $65 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $39 26h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $11 26h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $41 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.06 · official $55.07 (match) · 23 history records