Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:05:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CA
0xca93…df79
weather · 411 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,171 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,170 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$147
Realized−$1,170
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses341 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)403 / 411
History coverage66d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day50.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 8 History 403 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$47
14 days−$36
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14? No 99¢ 96¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 36°C or higher on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C or higher on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C or higher on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C or higher on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on April 30? No 97¢ 0¢ $231 $0 −$231 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $26 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 13 Jun 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on Ju Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $53 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 36°C or higher on June Jun 12 $728 −$5 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 12 Jun 12 $81 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C or higher on June 11 Jun 11 $64 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 104°F or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C or higher on June 10 Jun 10 $37 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $65 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 10 Jun 10 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C or higher on June Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $46 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C or higher on June Jun 09 $61 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $358 −$48 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 28°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $54 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C or higher on June Jun 08 $66 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 98°F or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $64 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $72 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $110 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $157 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C or higher on June Jun 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 100°F or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $16 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 100°F or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $64 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C or higher on June 7? Jun 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 38°C or higher on June Jun 06 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $152 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $64 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 96°F or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $26 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $68 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on Ju Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $268 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $63 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on June 5 Jun 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $209 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 41°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $53 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$1,171
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $3 2m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $4 3m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $7 6m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $7 7m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $7 10m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $7 11m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $7 14m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $7 15m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $7 18m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $7 19m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $7 22m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $7 23m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $5 26m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $5 27m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $7 28m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $7 29m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $7 32m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $7 33m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $7 37m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $7 38m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $7 41m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $7 42m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $7 45m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $7 46m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $5 49m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $5 50m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $7 51m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $7 52m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $7 55m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $7 56m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.1% -9.6% 81% 0% -11.3%
≤30d 165 +0.2% -9.3% 79% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 403 -0.6% -10.1% 85% 1% -11.1%
all 403 -0.6% -10.1% 85% 1% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover50.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 1% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 0% -19.6%
15% -26.5% 0% -27.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.20 · official $146.47 (match) · 3500 history records