Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:25:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca96…22f0 sports 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (107 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$147 (+39%) realized +$203 · open −$56
Gross ROI / mkt +162% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +102% what you keep after slip
Net edge+102%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day107.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$45
sports 32% +$136
economics 8% −$4
crypto 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+137.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +162.3% +137.3% 44% 44% +166.8%
≤30d 9 +162.3% +137.3% 44% 44% +166.8%
≤90d 9 +162.3% +137.3% 44% 44% +166.8%
all 9 +162.3% +137.3% 44% 44% +166.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover107.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +137.3% 44% +166.8%
10% ← realistic here +114.6% 33% +141.2%
15% +93.9% 33% +117.9%
20% +74.9% 33% +96.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +195% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +162% · $-wt +195% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$8 · ×5.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.79 per $1 lost it wins $4.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$124
Realized+$203
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions10
Markets (closed)9 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day107.0
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? No 36¢ 36¢ $73 $74 +$1 (+1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? No 89¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 87¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 28¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+19%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 25¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? No 47¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$4 -42%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$175 +1688%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$8 -80%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 +$3 +112%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 37¢ $3 27m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $2 28m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $2 28m
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 28m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $1 28m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 28m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $5 28m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $1 29m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $2 29m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $3 30m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes $5 30m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $5 30m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $1 31m
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes $5 31m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $5 31m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $2 31m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $11 31m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $2 31m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes $11 31m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 37¢ $3 31m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $5 32m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $5 32m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $2 32m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $5 32m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $2 32m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $5 32m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $2 33m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $2 33m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $2 33m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $2 33m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.02 · official $124.02 (match) · 116 history records