Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:08:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CA
0xca97…49f6
crypto · 19 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,450 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,227 · open −$224
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$9,476
Realized−$1,227
Unrealized−$224
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$207
Open positions7
Markets (closed)12 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$805
Trades / day69.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 7 History 12 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,227
7 days−$1,227
14 days−$1,227
30 days−$1,227
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 50¢ 50¢ $2,500 $2,475 −$25 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Derrick Lewis 23¢ 22¢ $2,000 $1,985 −$15 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 20¢ 20¢ $2,000 $1,950 −$50 (-2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ 22¢ $1,200 $1,173 −$27 (-2%)
Fight to Go the Distance? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $800 $720 −$80 (-10%)
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Kyle Daukaus 28¢ 28¢ $700 $688 −$12 (-2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Michael Chandler 18¢ 18¢ $500 $486 −$14 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $877 $0 −$877 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $71 $0 −$71 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $734 $0 −$734 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $907 −$877 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $317 −$232 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $763 −$734 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $206 +$149 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $1,015 +$350 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $416 +$491 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $211 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $620 −$443 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $414 +$384 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $104 −$92 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $306 +$76 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 65% −$224
crypto 35% −$1,227
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 28¢ $715 13m
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ $614 13m
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ $614 14m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 18¢ $512 14m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $2,538 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $79 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $103 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $86 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $106 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $106 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $106 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $89 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $51 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $355 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 53m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -25.2% -32.3% 42% 42% -30.2%
≤30d 12 -25.2% -32.3% 42% 42% -30.2%
≤90d 12 -25.2% -32.3% 42% 42% -30.2%
all 12 -25.2% -32.3% 42% 42% -30.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover69.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.3% 42% -30.2%
10% ← realistic here -38.8% 42% -36.9%
15% -44.7% 25% -43.0%
20% -50.1% 25% -48.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,476.41 · official $9,498.23 (match) · 70 history records