Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca99…2092 sports 102 markets active 19h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$124 (-26%) realized −$124 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate29%30W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$17
14 days−$18
30 days−$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$49
crypto 25% −$43
other 15% −$38
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-39.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -40.6% -46.3% 30% 30% -43.9%
≤30d 102 -33.1% -39.5% 29% 25% -34.8%
≤90d 102 -33.1% -39.5% 29% 25% -34.8%
all 102 -33.1% -39.5% 29% 25% -34.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.5% 25% -34.8%
10% -45.3% 25% -41.1%
15% -50.6% 22% -46.8%
20% -55.4% 16% -52.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$124
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses30 / 72
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)102 / 102
History coverage22d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 102 Trades
no open positions (53 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1 $0 -6%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Hijikata vs. Lehecka: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 18 $5 −$1 -28%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $4 −$2 -42%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $0 $0 -97%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $2 +$1 +65%
Marozsan vs. Fritz: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 18 $1 +$1 +73%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 +28%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 -30%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 -44%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 17 $1 +$1 +52%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Rinky Hijikata vs. Jiri Lehecka: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $2 +$1 +72%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $1 $0 +42%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $2 $0 +32%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 16 $2 −$1 -98%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $1 $0 +47%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +33%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 -12%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $2 +$1 +45%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 -8%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs. Alexander Bublik: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +48%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $1 +$1 +50%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Anna Blinkova Jun 09 $2 $0 +0%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 08 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Roland Garros Women's Singles? Jun 06 $5 +$7 +144%
Matteo Arnaldi vs. Flavio Cobolli: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $1 $0 -22%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 05 $3 −$2 -97%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 03 $3 −$3 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $3 +$4 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 31¢ $2 18h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 18h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 39h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 40h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 40h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 59¢ $1 41h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 57¢ $1 41h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 41h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka SELL Rinky Hijikata 29¢ $2 41h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka SELL Rinky Hijikata 34¢ $1 41h
Hijikata vs. Lehecka: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 42h
Hijikata vs. Lehecka: Match O/U 23.5 SELL Under $0 42h
Hijikata vs. Lehecka: Match O/U 23.5 SELL Under 42¢ $1 42h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Rinky Hijikata 14¢ $1 42h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka SELL Jiri Lehecka 87¢ $1 42h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 43h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn $0 45h
Hijikata vs. Lehecka: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 55¢ $2 46h
Hijikata vs. Lehecka: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 53¢ $2 2d
Marozsan vs. Fritz: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $1 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 19¢ $1 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 SELL Over 36¢ $1 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 231 history records