Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:10:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca9a…4870 world 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-1%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate32%12W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% −$12
other 14% +$2
politics 6% −$2
sports 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 14 -1.0% -10.4% 21% 7% -9.8%
≤90d 14 -1.0% -10.4% 21% 7% -9.8%
all 37 -5.9% -14.8% 32% 5% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 5% -11.0%
10% -23.0% 0% -19.5%
15% -30.4% 0% -27.3%
20% -37.2% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses12 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage473d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? No 91¢ 92¢ $36 $37 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $37 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $37 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $79 −$2 -3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $103 −$1 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $9 $0 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $55 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $39 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $36 +$4 +11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $40 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $37 −$1 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Jun 24 $13 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +4%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? May 17 $1 $0 +8%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 11 $12 $0 -1%
Will Viktor Hovland win The 2025 Masters? Apr 09 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 08 $13 $0 -1%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 06 $1 $0 -25%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? Apr 04 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $1 $0 -23%
Will Kentucky win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 31 $11 +$2 +13%
Trump meets with Carney in March? Mar 30 $3 −$2 -83%
Will Dillon Danis win the match? Mar 27 $14 $0 -1%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 25 $15 $0 -0%
Canada election called by Sunday? Mar 24 $15 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $77000 on Mar 21? Mar 22 $14 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by March 31? Mar 19 $14 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 10 $13 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 09 $13 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $36 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $37 4h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $37 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $36 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $37 15h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $40 25h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $40 28h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $40 32h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $40 33h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $33 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $36 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $17 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $23 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $1 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $10 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $29 20d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $8 21d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $35 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $5 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $40 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $15 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $15 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $44 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $43 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.44 · official $36.60 (match) · 114 history records