Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:09:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca9b…1c49 crypto 1484 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (177 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$677 (+3%) realized +$677 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate70%1131W / 490L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day176.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$350
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (177 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 936 -17.8% -25.7% 65% 16% -21.5%
≤30d 1621 -11.8% -20.2% 70% 16% -17.2%
≤90d 1621 -11.8% -20.2% 70% 16% -17.2%
all 1621 -11.8% -20.2% 70% 16% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover176.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.2% 16% -17.2%
10% ← realistic here -27.9% 9% -25.1%
15% -34.8% 7% -32.3%
20% -41.2% 5% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$10 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$677
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses1131 / 490
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1621 / 1484
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day176.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1621 Trades
no open positions (376 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $9 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $7 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $7 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $12 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $13 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $8 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records