Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:45:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CA 0xca9e…dd3c crypto 128 markets active 0h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$63 (+3%) realized +$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate91%116W / 12L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$1
14 days+$28
30 days+$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$33
world 12% −$22
sports 3% +$37
other 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -8.7% -17.4% 88% 4% -9.2%
≤30d 114 +2.0% -7.7% 92% 20% -6.2%
≤90d 126 +0.8% -8.8% 90% 18% -7.6%
all 128 +0.8% -8.8% 91% 18% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 18% -7.7%
10% -17.5% 9% -16.5%
15% -25.5% 2% -24.6%
20% -32.8% 1% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses116 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)128 / 128
History coverage97d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 128 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $50 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 10 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 08 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 08 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 08 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 08 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 08 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 08 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 08 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 07 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 07 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 07 $30 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 07 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $50 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $50 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.69 · official $115.69 (match) · 399 history records