Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:26:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xcaa1…e3b6 other 138 markets active 1h ago coverage 549d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$60 (-3%) realized −$57 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate86%118W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$171now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$33
tech 14% −$5
world 13% +$9
crypto 13% −$10
sports 5% −$24
economics 4% +$1
politics 2% −$2
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 +0.5% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 74 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 3% -6.2%
all 137 -12.1% -20.5% 86% 5% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 5% -12.6%
10% -28.1% 1% -21.0%
15% -35.1% 1% -28.6%
20% -41.4% 0% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

549d coverage
Net worth$171
Realized−$57
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses118 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)137 / 138
History coverage549d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $174 $171 −$3 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 01 $4 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 01 $3 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On May 31 $2 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control May 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 31 $158 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May? May 29 $4 $0 +1%
Citrea FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 28 $157 +$1 +0%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 26 $149 +$8 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $137 +$5 +4%
Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $117 +$21 +18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 16 $32 $0 +0%
Will Romania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will Israel advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 12 $31 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $30 +$1 +4%
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 05 $49 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Baidu have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in April? May 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will BNB dip to $300 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $60 end of April? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after April 2026 m May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in April? May 05 $4 $0 +1%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $310 end of April? May 05 $6 $0 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? May 05 $10 +$1 +7%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? Apr 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the April Meeting? Apr 26 $3 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 26 $7 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $10 +$2 +16%
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 15 $24 $0 +2%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 05 $47 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Oracle be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in March? Apr 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? Apr 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $900 in March? Apr 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in March? Apr 01 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $174 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $19 21d
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control BUY No 100¢ $5 27d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 99¢ $158 28d
Citrea FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $157 30d
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 94¢ $149 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $137 37d
Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $117 40d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 42d
Will Romania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 42d
Will Israel advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY Yes 98¢ $31 44d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $30 47d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $2 48d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $1 49d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May? BUY No 99¢ $4 49d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 49d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $4 50d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 99¢ $1 50d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 50d
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On BUY No 100¢ $2 50d
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $49 52d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 58d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY No 93¢ $10 60d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 63d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $3 64d
Will BNB dip to $300 in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 64d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $10 66d
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $310 end of April? BUY No 100¢ $2 67d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? BUY No 100¢ $3 69d
Will DeepSeek have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $170.77 · official $170.77 (match) · 334 history records