Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:11:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xcaa9…1533 world 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 276d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate37%17W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% $0
politics 19% −$1
other 13% −$1
culture 9% +$1
finance 8% $0
tech 3% $0
weather 3% $0
crypto 1% −$1
economics 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.8% -7.9% 25% 25% -9.0%
≤30d 4 +1.8% -7.9% 25% 25% -9.0%
≤90d 13 +0.7% -8.9% 54% 8% -9.5%
all 46 -2.2% -11.5% 37% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 2% -9.5%
10% -20.0% 2% -18.2%
15% -27.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

276d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses17 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage276d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 41¢ 40¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 26 $38 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $4 +$1 +29%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $1 $0 -20%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 27 $33 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $69 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $65 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $35 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $33 −$1 -3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 22 $69 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 20 $2 $0 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $8 $0 -2%
Will the Government shutdown end October 23-26? Oct 24 $1 −$1 -62%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? Oct 23 $2 −$1 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 23 $6 $0 -0%
Will Taylor Swift be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 23 $3 $0 +4%
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 22 $29 $0 +1%
Will FlyQuest win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 22 $29 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 22 $29 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 13 $7 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $23 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 02 $8 $0 +3%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $8 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Sep 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $4 $0 -4%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 80°F or higher on Sep Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 25 $28 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 23 $2 $0 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $37 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $8 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $29 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $37 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $37 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $21 30d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $13 30d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $33 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $7 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $22 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $1 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 41¢ $3 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 41¢ $27 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $33 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $33 30d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $12 32d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $20 32d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $32 32d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $32 32d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $32 32d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 94¢ $36 32d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 93¢ $35 32d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $32 32d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $32 33d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 67¢ $32 33d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 69¢ $33 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.34 · official $0.00 (match) · 146 history records