Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:33:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xcaad…60f8 other 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$1,269 (-1%) realized −$1,269 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate22%30W / 107L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$707per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1,379now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$20
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$248
politics 22% −$6
sports 11% −$1,100
economics 3% −$1
world 3% +$55
culture 2% −$2
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 55 +0.5% -9.1% 5% 2% -10.5%
all 137 -4.1% -13.2% 22% 11% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 11% -10.7%
10% -21.5% 11% -19.3%
15% -29.1% 9% -27.1%
20% -36.0% 9% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,018) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$29 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$1,379
Realized−$1,269
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses30 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions2
Markets (closed)137 / 139
History coverage159d
Avg bet$707
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $810 $811 +$0 (+0%)
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $568 $568 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,197 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $1,772 −$2 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $1,130 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,189 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,106 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,110 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $1,074 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $1,070 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $3,401 −$4 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,584 −$3 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $241 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $637 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $246 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,018 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $68 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $109 $0 +0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $264 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $231 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 09 $216 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $263 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $258 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $262 $0 -0%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) May 07 $1,944 −$1,944 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $2,614 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,677 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $1,136 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $2,935 −$3 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,138 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $1,651 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $5,289 −$5 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $2,500 −$3 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $1,682 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $3,337 −$3 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $2,068 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $2,837 −$3 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $1,560 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $3,317 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $2,460 −$2 -0%
Bucks vs. Nets Apr 10 $919 +$1,218 +133%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $1,524 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Mar 28 $755 −$1 -0%
Will Byeong Hun An win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 25 $777 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $1,549 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 25 $848 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $1,349 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 24 $787 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 24 $834 −$1 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Mar 23 $1,593 −$2 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $828 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $568 50m
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $811 6h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,195 3d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,197 3d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $936 4d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $937 4d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,129 6d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,130 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,187 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,189 6d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,104 6d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,106 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $713 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $714 7d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,073 9d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,074 10d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,068 10d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,070 10d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,054 10d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,055 10d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $708 11d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $709 11d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $241 14d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $241 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $235 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $235 15d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $246 15d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $246 15d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $215 15d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $216 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,378.90 · official $1,378.90 (match) · 414 history records