trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 19 | -7.7% | -16.5% | 42% | 42% | -22.8% |
| ≤30d | 24 | -2.8% | -12.1% | 46% | 46% | -14.4% |
| ≤90d | 24 | -2.8% | -12.1% | 46% | 46% | -14.4% |
| all | 24 | -2.8% | -12.1% | 46% | 46% | -14.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -12.1% | 46% | -14.4% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -20.5% | 38% | -22.6% |
| 15% | -28.2% | 33% | -30.1% |
| 20% | -35.2% | 29% | -36.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | No | 62¢ | 65¢ | $3,553 | $3,738 | +$185 (+5%) |
| Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? | No | 18¢ | 17¢ | $258 | $252 | −$6 (-2%) |
| Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? | Yes | 10¢ | 14¢ | $121 | $169 | +$47 (+39%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? | Jun 28 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Jordan vs. Argentina: Jordan O/U 0.5 | Jun 28 | $95 | −$95 | -100% |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 28 | $253 | −$253 | -100% |
| Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? | Jun 28 | $245 | −$245 | -100% |
| Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? | Jun 28 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 28 | $1,135 | −$955 | -84% |
| Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score | Jun 28 | $282 | −$282 | -100% |
| Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? | Jun 28 | $338 | −$338 | -100% |
| Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 0.5 | Jun 28 | $56 | −$56 | -100% |
| Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 | Jun 28 | $610 | +$261 | +43% |
| Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? | Jun 28 | $260 | −$10 | -4% |
| Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 | Jun 28 | $663 | +$418 | +63% |
| Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 | Jun 28 | $519 | −$519 | -100% |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? | Jun 27 | $285 | +$215 | +75% |
| GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? | Jun 26 | $276 | +$55 | +20% |
| GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? | Jun 25 | $0 | $0 | +425% |
| Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? | Jun 25 | $435 | +$236 | +54% |
| Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? | Jun 24 | $494 | +$477 | +97% |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? | Jun 24 | $506 | +$322 | +64% |
| Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score | Jun 20 | $106 | +$32 | +30% |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 20 | $86 | +$17 | +19% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | Jun 18 | $138 | −$53 | -38% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 18 | $1,273 | −$251 | -20% |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? | Jun 17 | $849 | +$740 | +87% |