Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:09:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CA 0xcab5…7b66 crypto 64 markets active 8h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$17 (-21%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%26W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$14
other 19% −$4
sports 9% −$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -28.4% -35.2% 44% 44% -32.1%
≤30d 17 -26.7% -33.7% 41% 41% -30.9%
≤90d 17 -26.7% -33.7% 41% 41% -30.9%
all 59 -23.9% -31.2% 44% 41% -31.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.2% 41% -31.8%
10% -37.8% 36% -38.3%
15% -43.8% 20% -44.3%
20% -49.3% 12% -49.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses26 / 33
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)59 / 64
History coverage140d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -74%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +37%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +120%
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +102%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 11 $1 $0 +35%
ITF Tokyo: Ikumi Yamazaki vs Nao Nishino Jun 11 $2 +$1 +30%
Libema Open (Doubles): Auger-Aliassime/Shapovalov vs Nouza/Oberleitner Jun 10 $1 $0 +35%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $1 $0 -1%
XRP Up or Down - January 31, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Feb 11 $1 −$1 -67%
XRP Up or Down - January 31, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jan 31 $1 −$1 -88%
XRP Up or Down - January 31, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jan 31 $3 −$2 -58%
XRP Up or Down - January 31, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jan 31 $1 $0 +22%
XRP Up or Down - January 30, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jan 30 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 30, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jan 30 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 30, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jan 30 $1 $0 -46%
XRP Up or Down - January 30, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jan 30 $1 $0 -46%
XRP Up or Down - January 30, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jan 30 $1 +$1 +57%
XRP Up or Down - January 30, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jan 30 $1 $0 +26%
XRP Up or Down - January 30, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jan 30 $2 −$1 -40%
XRP Up or Down - January 30, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jan 30 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 30, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jan 30 $1 $0 +25%
XRP Up or Down - January 30, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jan 30 $1 $0 +34%
XRP Up or Down - January 30, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jan 30 $1 $0 -36%
XRP Up or Down - January 30, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jan 30 $1 $0 +20%
XRP Up or Down - January 29, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 29 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 29, 9AM ET Jan 29 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jan 29 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jan 29 $1 $0 -41%
XRP Up or Down - January 29, 6AM ET Jan 29 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jan 29 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jan 29 $2 −$1 -35%
XRP Up or Down - January 28, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jan 29 $1 $0 -28%
XRP Up or Down - January 28, 12PM ET Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - January 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jan 29 $1 $0 -30%
XRP Up or Down - January 28, 11AM ET Jan 29 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jan 29 $3 −$2 -55%
XRP Up or Down - January 29, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jan 29 $2 +$1 +53%
XRP Up or Down - January 29, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jan 29 $1 $0 +26%
XRP Up or Down - January 29, 8AM ET Jan 29 $2 $0 +8%
XRP Up or Down - January 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jan 29 $1 $0 +35%
XRP Up or Down - January 29, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jan 29 $1 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 7h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 7h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 19h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 31¢ $0 43h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $0 43h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 43h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 47¢ $0 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 75¢ $2 5d
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Rinky Hijikata 32¢ $1 6d
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan SELL Daniel Galan 34¢ $1 6d
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan SELL Daniel Galan 22¢ $0 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 6d
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan SELL Daniel Galan 20¢ $0 6d
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan BUY Daniel Galan 20¢ $1 6d
ITF Tokyo: Ikumi Yamazaki vs Nao Nishino SELL Nao Nishino 62¢ $1 6d
ITF Tokyo: Ikumi Yamazaki vs Nao Nishino BUY Nao Nishino 44¢ $1 6d
ITF Tokyo: Ikumi Yamazaki vs Nao Nishino SELL Ikumi Yamazaki 35¢ $1 6d
ITF Tokyo: Ikumi Yamazaki vs Nao Nishino BUY Ikumi Yamazaki 27¢ $1 6d
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 73¢ $1 6d
Libema Open (Doubles): Auger-Aliassime/Shapovalov vs Nouza/Oberleitner SELL Auger-Aliassime/Shapovalov 99¢ $1 6d
Libema Open (Doubles): Auger-Aliassime/Shapovalov vs Nouza/Oberleitner BUY Auger-Aliassime/Shapovalov 72¢ $1 6d
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel SELL Hanne Vandewinkel 70¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.92 · official $4.92 (match) · 182 history records