Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:30:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
CA 0xcab9…a031 crypto 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$103 (+1%) realized +$103 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate67%50W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$294
7 days+$278
14 days+$151
30 days+$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$159
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -6.8% -15.7% 64% 25% -5.8%
≤30d 75 -8.8% -17.5% 67% 37% -7.5%
≤90d 75 -8.8% -17.5% 67% 37% -7.5%
all 75 -8.8% -17.5% 67% 37% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 37% -7.5%
10% -25.4% 12% -16.4%
15% -32.6% 3% -24.4%
20% -39.2% 1% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$17 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$103
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses50 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)75 / 75
History coverage16d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 75 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $458 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $458 +$54 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $613 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $310 +$35 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $311 +$34 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $514 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $311 +$46 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $311 +$69 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $309 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $311 +$61 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $257 +$59 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $410 −$141 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $256 +$20 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $256 +$17 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $206 +$17 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $155 +$14 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $503 −$49 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $207 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $206 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $155 +$18 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $207 +$9 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 22 $206 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$3 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$8 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $12 −$4 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $15 −$4 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $23 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$4 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $23 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $35 −$19 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $31 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $487 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $202 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $53 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $203 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $13 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $202 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $53 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $204 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $326 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $463 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $331 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $206 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $361 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $19 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 250 history records