Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:20:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CA 0xcab9…eb2d crypto 142 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,127 (+11%) realized +$1,384 · open −$257
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate79%110W / 30L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$385
14 days+$1,088
30 days+$1,088
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$723
crypto 7% +$31
tech 2% +$49
other 1% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +7.9% -2.4% 78% 57% -2.8%
≤30d 140 +5.9% -4.2% 79% 61% +1.6%
≤90d 140 +5.9% -4.2% 79% 61% +1.6%
all 140 +5.9% -4.2% 79% 61% +1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 61% +1.6%
10% -13.4% 42% -8.2%
15% -21.7% 23% -17.0%
20% -29.4% 14% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$15 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.34 per $1 lost it wins $3.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,384
Unrealized−$257
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses110 / 30
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions2
Markets (closed)140 / 142
History coverage14d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner T1 Academy 73¢ 0¢ $213 $0 −$213 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Nongshim Esports Academy 40¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $372 −$5 -1%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $87 +$29 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +12%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $30 +$7 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $102 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$4 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +5%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $168 +$79 +47%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $110 +$58 +52%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $90 +$20 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$3 -42%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $927 +$67 +7%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $1,225 +$146 +12%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $432 −$51 -12%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $128 −$128 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $700 +$131 +19%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $167 +$49 +29%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $75 +$5 +7%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $15 +$29 +188%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $38 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$6 +68%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Lotte Giants Jun 11 $74 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $13 −$7 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$3 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +9%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 11 $53 +$17 +32%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 120.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $46 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +6%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $39 −$39 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 123.5 Jun 11 $35 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $716 21m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 83¢ $600 40m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 40¢ $45 43m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 53¢ $145 44m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 70¢ $196 49m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $245 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 88¢ $50 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 64¢ $122 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 39¢ $122 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 62¢ $200 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 74¢ $99 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 72¢ $116 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $116 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 78¢ $49 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 70¢ $37 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $7 29h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner SELL Cloud Rising 100¢ $37 31h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 80¢ $30 32h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 92¢ $2 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 94¢ $50 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 92¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $7 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $247 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 88¢ $51 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 62¢ $50 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 60¢ $68 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 65¢ $110 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $110 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.20 · official $0.20 (match) · 387 history records