Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:14:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CA
0xcac1…aa4d
crypto · 13 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$7 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 13 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$12 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $52 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$15 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$24 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$8 +81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+41.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +56.4% +41.5% 54% 54% -13.1%
≤30d 13 +56.4% +41.5% 54% 54% -13.1%
≤90d 13 +56.4% +41.5% 54% 54% -13.1%
all 13 +56.4% +41.5% 54% 54% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +41.5% 54% -13.1%
10% +28.0% 54% -21.5%
15% +15.6% 46% -29.0%
20% +4.3% 46% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records