Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:21:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xcac8…cdd2 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$311 (-13%) realized −$297 · open −$14
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%12W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$176now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$258
7 days−$322
14 days−$398
30 days−$325
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$312
sports 44% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -39.4% -45.2% 38% 38% -46.1%
≤30d 28 -18.6% -26.4% 43% 43% -24.0%
≤90d 28 -18.6% -26.4% 43% 43% -24.0%
all 28 -18.6% -26.4% 43% 43% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 43% -24.0%
10% -33.4% 43% -31.3%
15% -39.9% 36% -37.9%
20% -45.8% 25% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$51 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$176
Realized−$297
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses12 / 16
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage29d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $94 $90 −$4 (-4%)
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Canada 72¢ 64¢ $97 $87 −$10 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $412 −$218 -53%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $24 −$24 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $16 +$8 +49%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $12 −$12 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $17 −$17 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $83 −$82 -99%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $47 +$36 +75%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $40 +$14 +34%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $30 +$11 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $54 +$25 +47%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $199 −$199 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $38 −$37 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $132 −$20 -16%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $155 −$54 -35%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $128 +$32 +25%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $191 +$110 +58%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $22 −$22 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $128 +$85 +66%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $26 +$29 +109%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $52 +$49 +93%
Will Kenan Yıldız score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $39 −$13 -34%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $22 +$18 +80%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $51 +$72 +143%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 72¢ $98 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $96 1h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $194 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $24 22h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 82¢ $24 22h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $16 26h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 41h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $12 41h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $17 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $83 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $83 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $47 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes $41 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 32¢ $11 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 90¢ $54 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 92¢ $40 5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $54 6d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $104 7d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $3 7d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $92 7d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 31¢ $38 7d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 31¢ $112 7d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $132 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 95¢ $28 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 7d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $160 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 33¢ $73 7d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 80¢ $128 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.36 · official $176.36 (match) · 71 history records