Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:18:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CA
0xcac9…47a9
sports · 235 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$223 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$199 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$386
Realized+$199
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses98 / 129
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions8
Markets (closed)227 / 235
History coverage64d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 8 History 227 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days−$4
14 days−$135
30 days+$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? No 99¢ 98¢ $90 $90 −$0 (-0%)
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? No 99¢ 99¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-0%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 95¢ 92¢ $80 $77 −$3 (-4%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-0%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? No 98¢ 98¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Esmir Bajraktarević: 2+ goals Yes 7¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Over 10¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? No 19¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? No 70¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 55m? No 74¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? No 20¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? No 85¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Ukraine be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Spread: 76ers (-1.5) Celtics 52¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$41 +138%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$5 +47%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 +$12 +117%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $15 +$69 +446%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Esmir Bajraktarević: 2+ goals Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Esmir Bajraktarević: 1+ goals Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +41%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $10 +$3 +27%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $15 +$9 +60%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $16 −$16 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 11 $0 $0 -13%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 31 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 31 $18 −$17 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $20 −$19 -95%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 31 $126 −$47 -38%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $49 +$3 +7%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 31 $5 −$3 -65%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? May 31 $5 −$3 -69%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun May 31 $4 −$2 -56%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? May 31 $5 −$3 -59%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? May 31 $8 −$6 -69%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $24 −$16 -64%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the May 31 $3 $0 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $132 −$7 -6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 31 $24 −$10 -42%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? May 31 $12 −$5 -44%
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? May 31 $10 −$1 -6%
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? May 31 $30 −$2 -7%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $11 +$1 +13%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el May 31 $12 +$1 +8%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele May 31 $11 −$1 -11%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 31 $100 +$13 +13%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 31 $40 −$6 -14%
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $17 +$1 +7%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 31 $19 +$2 +9%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $20 −$1 -4%
Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption wo May 31 $20 +$3 +16%
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? May 31 $20 +$4 +19%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 31 $140 +$2 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $357 +$10 +3%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? May 29 $12 +$4 +33%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 29 $12 +$9 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 32% −$66
sports 29% −$10
other 16% +$92
politics 7% +$127
crypto 6% −$6
finance 4% +$34
economics 4% +$44
culture 2% −$10
tech 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 32m
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 32m
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 32m
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $10 50m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $10 50m
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? BUY No 99¢ $10 50m
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 50m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 94¢ $10 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 94¢ $10 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 94¢ $10 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $10 1h
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $10 1h
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $10 1h
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $10 1h
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 94¢ $10 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $10 2h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 2h
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? BUY No 99¢ $10 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 96¢ $10 2h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $10 2h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 2h
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? BUY No 99¢ $10 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 96¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -7.6% -16.4% 39% 39% -11.0%
≤30d 70 +16.7% +5.6% 40% 31% -5.7%
≤90d 227 -0.9% -10.3% 43% 39% -4.3%
all 227 -0.9% -10.3% 43% 39% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 39% -4.3%
10% -18.9% 33% -13.5%
15% -26.7% 30% -21.8%
20% -33.9% 28% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $386.39 · official $386.39 (match) · 792 history records