Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:12:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xcacc…2eac world 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$975 (+14%) realized +$985 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate28%32W / 83L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$171now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days−$60
14 days−$547
30 days+$520
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 88% +$1,185
other 5% −$48
politics 3% −$117
sports 2% −$13
finance 2% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -14.8% -22.9% 13% 13% -29.9%
≤30d 51 +25.9% +13.9% 27% 25% +35.2%
≤90d 111 +25.7% +13.7% 28% 21% +19.6%
all 115 +24.9% +13.0% 28% 21% +19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.0% 21% +19.5%
10% +2.2% 15% +8.1%
15% -7.7% 12% -2.4%
20% -16.7% 10% -11.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$22 · ×3.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$171
Realized+$985
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses32 / 83
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)115 / 120
History coverage94d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Yes 33¢ 36¢ $122 $134 +$13 (+10%)
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? No 1¢ 1¢ $26 $20 −$5 (-21%)
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-25%)
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? Yes 5¢ 30¢ $1 $6 +$5 (+510%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 27? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $74 $0 −$74 (-100%)
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $197 $0 −$197 (-100%)
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $79 $0 −$79 (-100%)
Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $61 $0 −$61 (-100%)
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 14 $10 −$5 -50%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $15 +$45 +299%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -89%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $40 −$1 -2%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Jun 12 $20 −$8 -39%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 12 $20 +$7 +34%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -10%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $9 −$1 -11%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $11 −$2 -20%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $10 $0 -5%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $24 −$11 -45%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7? Jun 09 $111 −$51 -46%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 08 $280 −$28 -10%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J Jun 07 $61 −$19 -31%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-Jun Jun 07 $39 −$30 -76%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7? Jun 07 $34 −$34 -100%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-Jun Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 03 $17 −$17 -100%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-J Jun 02 $654 −$271 -41%
Will Paloma Valencia win between 20% and 25% of votes in the first rou Jun 01 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Paloma Valencia win between 25% and 30% of votes in the first rou Jun 01 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 01 $41 +$8 +18%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 31 $144 −$103 -71%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of May 31 $263 +$50 +19%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $31 −$30 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 30 $108 −$23 -21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 30 $38 +$6 +17%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 29 $65 −$2 -2%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M May 29 $317 +$1,166 +367%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 28 $20 +$2 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $11 +$46 +414%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 28 $20 +$3 +17%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 28 $7 −$3 -46%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 27 $40 −$9 -22%
Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? May 27 $171 −$159 -93%
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May May 27 $196 −$177 -90%
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? May 27 $173 +$233 +135%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 26 $5 $0 -9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 26 $10 −$6 -62%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $1 +$18 +1841%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 22 $40 +$26 +64%
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? May 20 $33 −$4 -14%
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? May 20 $452 −$265 -59%
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? May 20 $60 +$215 +356%
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May May 16 $5 −$4 -77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 98¢ $60 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY No 0¢ $1 1h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 31¢ $31 2h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 33¢ $20 2h
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY No 1¢ $1 2h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 36¢ $20 3h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 35¢ $10 3h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 35¢ $5 3h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 34¢ $5 3h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 31¢ $31 3h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J SELL Yes 30¢ $118 4h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 31¢ $6 5h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 32¢ $3 5h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 32¢ $10 5h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 35¢ $10 5h
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY No 1¢ $0 5h
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-Ju BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 44¢ $10 7h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J SELL Yes 36¢ $1 7h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 42¢ $4 7h
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY No 1¢ $2 8h
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY No 1¢ $0 8h
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY No 1¢ $1 8h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 32¢ $26 8h
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY No 0¢ $0 9h
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY No 0¢ $0 9h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 30¢ $3 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171.12 · official $171.12 (match) · 857 history records