Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:19:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CA 0xcacc…d741 tech 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
RISKYcopy with care tech specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-25%) realized −$5 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 32d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 52% −$1
weather 26% −$6
other 22% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$3 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)2 / 6
History coverage32d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes 84¢ 81¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Up 79¢ 80¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 15? May 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 16? May 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 79¢ $2 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last tr BUY Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 15? BUY No 4¢ $1 31d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.10 · official $16.10 (match) · 6 history records