Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:22:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

CA 0xcad2…f315 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$8 (+10%) realized +$8 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip

Net edge+12%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate80%4W / 1L

Drawdown21%max

Avg bet$14per market

Trades / day4.8pace

Kalshi-fit17%portable

Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)+16.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+28.9%	+16.6%	80%	60%	+39.0%
≤30d	5	+28.9%	+16.6%	80%	60%	+39.0%
≤90d	5	+28.9%	+16.6%	80%	60%	+39.0%
all	5	+28.9%	+16.6%	80%	60%	+39.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.8 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+16.6%	60%	+39.0%
10%	+5.4%	60%	+25.7%
15%	-4.7%	60%	+13.5%
20%	-14.1%	60%	+2.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 56% · top 2 92% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +54% too few recent

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +29% · $-wt +54% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×5.73 per $1 lost it wins $5.73

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$36

Realized+$8

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)80%

Wins / losses4 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage2d

Avg bet$14

Trades / day4.8

Drawdown21%

Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	62¢	62¢	$37	$36	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1	Jun 20	$21	+$16	+77%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$10	+$11	+105%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$3	+$2	+57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Jun 18	$5	$0	+6%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	62¢	$37	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1	BUY	56¢	$21	27h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$5	32h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$3	41h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$5	41h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	54¢	$5	41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$5	41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	BUY Up	93¢	$5	41h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.44 · official $36.44 (match) · 12 history records