Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:05:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CA 0xcad2…dded crypto 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 184d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$22 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate62%10W / 6L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$729per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$610now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% +$6
economics 46% +$1
politics 5% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 5 +0.1% -9.5% 40% 0% -9.5%
all 16 +0.1% -9.4% 62% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×18.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×91.29 per $1 lost it wins $91.29
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$610
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage184d
Avg bet$729
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $450 $449 −$0 (-0%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 73¢ 80¢ $146 $160 +$14 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $452 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? May 23 $459 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 05 $418 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in March? Mar 30 $430 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in March? Mar 30 $420 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? Mar 23 $409 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Mar 19 $448 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Mar 15 $1,325 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Feb 14 $438 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Feb 05 $428 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 27 $981 +$1 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 19 $4,338 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Jan 16 $545 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 09 $299 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 06 $297 +$3 +1%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 31 $844 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $450 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $459 61d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $418 80d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $418 84d
Will XRP reach $2.00 in March? SELL No 100¢ $430 86d
Will XRP reach $2.00 in March? BUY No 100¢ $430 86d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? SELL No 100¢ $13 86d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? SELL No 100¢ $43 87d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? SELL No 100¢ $36 87d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? SELL No 100¢ $46 87d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? SELL No 100¢ $48 87d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? SELL No 100¢ $44 87d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? SELL No 100¢ $36 87d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? SELL No 100¢ $50 87d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? SELL No 100¢ $48 87d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? SELL No 100¢ $56 87d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? BUY No 100¢ $420 87d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? SELL No 100¢ $409 93d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? BUY No 100¢ $409 94d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $448 97d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $448 101d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $449 102d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $448 109d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $429 110d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $429 113d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $448 114d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $448 114d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? SELL No 100¢ $31 130d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? SELL No 100¢ $6 130d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? SELL No 100¢ $102 130d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $609.83 · official $609.83 (match) · 242 history records