Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:00:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xcad4…317a other 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$284 (-16%) realized −$292 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate24%11W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$1
14 days−$9
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$274
other 14% −$3
world 13% −$58
politics 12% +$60
sports 6% −$20
tech 3% +$31
economics 1% −$9
culture 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-45.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -20.1% -27.7% 26% 26% -9.1%
≤30d 22 -26.9% -33.8% 23% 23% -18.2%
≤90d 44 -38.8% -44.7% 25% 23% -26.0%
all 45 -40.2% -45.9% 24% 22% -27.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.9% 22% -27.6%
10% -51.1% 18% -34.5%
15% -55.8% 13% -40.8%
20% -60.1% 9% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$14 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$175
Realized−$292
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses11 / 34
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions19
Markets (closed)45 / 64
History coverage90d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 95¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 66¢ 66¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 15¢ $5 $18 +$13 (+294%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $18 +$2 (+15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$1 (+24%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes $6 $5 −$1 (-13%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $3 +$1 (+47%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $3 −$2 (-40%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $3 +$1 (+37%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $3 −$1 (-37%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $2 −$1 (-22%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $2 −$1 (-41%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $1 −$3 (-74%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$4 +18%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $3 −$2 -79%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $5 −$1 -22%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $2 −$1 -37%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $5 +$6 +109%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $3 −$1 -28%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $12 +$5 +42%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6 −$1 -18%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 $0 -8%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 $0 -2%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $5 +$3 +55%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 $0 -4%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $1 $0 -37%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -89%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -53%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 12 $6 −$4 -68%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $9 −$4 -47%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 07 $31 −$30 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 06 $100 −$50 -50%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? May 04 $214 −$63 -30%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? May 03 $117 −$110 -94%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $2 −$1 -52%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 18 $5 −$5 -93%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 18 $210 +$64 +31%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 13? Apr 13 $2 −$2 -93%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Apr 12 $246 −$108 -44%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 7-13? Apr 12 $5 −$5 -93%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Apr 09 $25 +$21 +83%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 08 $100 +$23 +23%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $6 −$1 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 7? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 04 $2 −$2 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 1? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 01 $10 −$5 -47%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 3? Mar 31 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 23-29? Mar 30 $260 +$38 +14%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 24-30? Mar 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on Mar 30 $25 +$10 +40%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 84¢ $20 4h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5 SELL Over $1 4h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $1 4h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $2 5h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 39¢ $4 5h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 66¢ $5 8h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 8h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 8h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 8h
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes $1 8h
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes $1 20h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 20h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 SELL Over 30¢ $2 20h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $3 20h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 23h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 23h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 23h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 23h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 23h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 23h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 24h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 SELL Over 34¢ $3 24h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 24h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 36¢ $3 24h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 24h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 SELL Over 24¢ $7 24h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 SELL Over 27¢ $10 26h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $20 29h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $5 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.72 · official $174.73 (match) · 280 history records