Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:16:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CA 0xcad6…1397 crypto 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (83 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-2%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate67%36W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day82.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% +$18
other 17% +$17
sports 2% −$20
world 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (83 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -11.9% -20.3% 67% 39% -7.9%
≤30d 54 -11.9% -20.3% 67% 39% -7.9%
≤90d 54 -11.9% -20.3% 67% 39% -7.9%
all 54 -11.9% -20.3% 67% 39% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.3% 39% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -27.9% 28% -16.7%
15% -34.9% 17% -24.7%
20% -41.2% 15% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses36 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 57
History coverage3d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day82.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $66 +$17 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 26 $65 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 26 $60 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$27 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 25 $15 +$3 +18%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 25 $39 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 25 $18 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 25 $36 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 25 $28 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 25 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 25 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 25 $8 +$5 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $28 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 25 $11 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 25 $38 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 25 $75 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 25 $58 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $73 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 25 $29 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 25 $57 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 25 $3 +$1 +22%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $46 +$5 +12%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -76%
Korea Republic to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 25 $4 +$5 +113%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 7h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 7h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 259 history records