Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:56:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CA 0xcad7…02f7 sports 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 622d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$63 (+0%) realized +$63 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate87%90W / 13L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$606per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 85% −$41
crypto 5% +$13
culture 4% +$19
economics 4% +$8
other 1% +$18
sports 0% +$44
tech 0% $0
world 0% +$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 3 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 103 +4.1% -5.8% 87% 21% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 21% -9.4%
10% -14.8% 14% -18.1%
15% -23.0% 12% -26.0%
20% -30.6% 10% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

622d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses90 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)103 / 104
History coverage622d
Avg bet$606
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $103 $103 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr May 24 $103 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of March? Apr 25 $103 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink dip to $2 in February? Mar 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft reach $630 in February? Mar 13 $52 $0 +0%
Will Netflix reach $455 in January? Feb 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor reach $11.50 in January? Feb 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $40 on the final trading day of January 2 Feb 21 $12 $0 +0%
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after February 202 Feb 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink dip to $8 in January? Feb 21 $18 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA dip to $108 in January? Feb 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft reach $608 in January? Feb 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC win on 2025-11-30? Dec 10 $9 +$4 +49%
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Daejeon Hana Citizen FC end in a draw? Dec 10 $10 +$3 +35%
Will Daejeon Hana Citizen FC win on 2025-11-30? Dec 10 $10 +$16 +156%
Spread: Blackhawks (-1.5) Dec 10 $22 +$8 +35%
Predators vs. Blackhawks Dec 10 $21 +$22 +102%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? Dec 10 $56 $0 +0%
Predators vs. Blackhawks: O/U 6.5 Nov 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Ravens (-8.5) Nov 28 $5 $0 +3%
49ers vs. Cardinals: O/U 47.5 Nov 28 $5 $0 +4%
Chiefs vs. Broncos: O/U 45.5 Nov 28 $6 $0 +3%
Spread: 49ers (-1.5) Nov 28 $6 $0 +2%
Ravens vs. Browns: O/U 41.5 Nov 28 $5 +$7 +127%
49ers vs. Cardinals Nov 28 $10 +$2 +15%
Seahawks vs. Rams Nov 28 $10 +$4 +41%
Lions vs. Eagles Nov 28 $9 +$7 +72%
Spread: Eagles (-1.5) Nov 28 $9 +$7 +79%
Lions vs. Eagles: O/U 46.5 Nov 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Chiefs (-3.5) Nov 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Chiefs vs. Broncos Nov 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Ravens vs. Browns Nov 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Seahawks vs. Rams: O/U 47.5 Nov 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Rams (-2.5) Nov 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Jets vs. Patriots Nov 16 $10 +$2 +16%
Spread: Packers (-1.5) Nov 16 $8 +$7 +85%
Jets vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5 Nov 16 $10 +$6 +56%
Eagles vs. Packers Nov 16 $8 +$8 +96%
Eagles vs. Packers: O/U 45.5 Nov 16 $8 +$8 +96%
Spread: Patriots (-10.5) Nov 16 $10 +$8 +82%
Will FIT-U hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following th Nov 10 $117 $0 -0%
Will Enoch Chihana win the 2025 Malawi presidential election? Oct 14 $48 $0 +0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 29 $116 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? Aug 05 $115 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon win the 2025 Canadian GP pole? Jul 03 $108 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 11 $115 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in April? May 13 $114 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $2,702 +$14 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 21 $2,474 +$7 +0%
Will "I'm Still Here" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 08 $2,457 +$17 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $103 1h
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY No 100¢ $50 29d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr BUY No 100¢ $103 59d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $103 101d
Will Microsoft reach $630 in February? BUY No 100¢ $52 121d
Will Chainlink dip to $2 in February? BUY No 100¢ $50 121d
Will Chainlink dip to $8 in January? BUY No 98¢ $18 157d
Will NVIDIA dip to $108 in January? BUY No 100¢ $20 157d
Will Netflix reach $455 in January? BUY No 100¢ $10 157d
Will Microsoft reach $608 in January? BUY No 100¢ $20 157d
Will Opendoor reach $11.50 in January? BUY No 99¢ $10 157d
Will Silver (SI) settle over $40 on the final trading day of January 2 BUY Yes 100¢ $12 157d
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after February 202 BUY No 100¢ $14 157d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $56 207d
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC win on 2025-11-30? BUY No 67¢ $9 207d
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Daejeon Hana Citizen FC end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $10 207d
Will Daejeon Hana Citizen FC win on 2025-11-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 207d
Predators vs. Blackhawks BUY Predators 50¢ $11 207d
Spread: Blackhawks (-1.5) BUY Predators 74¢ $11 207d
Predators vs. Blackhawks: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 59¢ $11 207d
Spread: Blackhawks (-1.5) BUY Predators 74¢ $11 207d
Predators vs. Blackhawks BUY Predators 49¢ $11 207d
Lions vs. Eagles: O/U 46.5 BUY Over 50¢ $9 218d
Spread: Eagles (-1.5) BUY Eagles 56¢ $9 218d
Lions vs. Eagles BUY Eagles 58¢ $9 218d
Chiefs vs. Broncos: O/U 45.5 BUY Under 97¢ $6 218d
Spread: Chiefs (-3.5) BUY Chiefs 48¢ $8 218d
Chiefs vs. Broncos BUY Chiefs 62¢ $8 218d
Ravens vs. Browns: O/U 41.5 BUY Under 44¢ $5 218d
Spread: Ravens (-8.5) BUY Browns 97¢ $5 218d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.00 · official $103.00 (match) · 228 history records