Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:27:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CA 0xcada…57d7 sports 14 markets active 1d ago coverage 23d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,300 (+66%) realized +$1,300 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +51% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +37% what you keep after slip
Net edge+37%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%9W / 5L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$368
7 days+$732
14 days+$1,276
30 days+$1,276
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,276
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+37.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +71.6% +55.2% 83% 83% +80.0%
≤30d 14 +51.4% +37.0% 64% 64% +48.7%
≤90d 14 +51.4% +37.0% 64% 64% +48.7%
all 14 +51.4% +37.0% 64% 64% +48.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +37.0% 64% +48.7%
10% +23.9% 50% +34.4%
15% +11.9% 50% +21.4%
20% +0.9% 50% +9.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +64% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +51% · $-wt +64% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +105% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$201 vs −$106 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.4 per $1 lost it wins $3.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,300
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses9 / 5
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage23d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $242 +$368 +152%
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Hive (+1.5) Jun 18 $58 +$42 +73%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $132 +$298 +226%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $262 +$48 +18%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 15 $14 +$9 +59%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $91 +$279 +307%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 09 $7 +$1 +17%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $10 −$1 -13%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 08 $259 +$202 +78%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $313 −$246 -79%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $312 +$559 +179%
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs ALGO Esports (+1.5) Jun 07 $179 −$179 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Clo Jun 07 $71 −$71 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 39¢ $0 33h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 39¢ $2 33h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 39¢ $2 33h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 39¢ $236 33h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 39¢ $2 33h
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Hive (+1.5) BUY Power Rangers 57¢ $58 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 30¢ $132 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $310 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 84¢ $262 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 10¢ $33 5d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) SELL 9z 100¢ $23 5d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) BUY 9z 62¢ $14 5d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 24¢ $91 11d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) BUY G2 85¢ $7 12d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team Yandex 57¢ $4 13d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team Yandex 56¢ $111 13d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team Yandex 55¢ $144 13d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner SELL GamerLegion 14¢ $67 13d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner BUY GamerLegion 63¢ $313 13d
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL FlyQuest $9 13d
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY FlyQuest $10 13d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL LGD Gaming 99¢ $872 13d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 34¢ $93 13d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 36¢ $220 13d
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Clo BUY BIG Academy 52¢ $71 14d
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs ALGO Esports (+1.5) BUY ALGO Esports 38¢ $178 24d
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs ALGO Esports (+1.5) BUY ALGO Esports 38¢ $1 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records