Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:27:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xcadb…a190 sports 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$96 (-9%) realized −$96 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate41%29W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$26
14 days−$26
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$101
sports 45% −$25
other 2% −$5
finance 1% −$1
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.0% -10.4% 44% 44% -21.6%
≤30d 9 -1.0% -10.4% 44% 44% -21.6%
≤90d 15 -27.4% -34.3% 27% 27% -32.8%
all 70 -14.7% -22.8% 41% 31% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.8% 31% -20.8%
10% -30.2% 24% -28.4%
15% -36.9% 16% -35.3%
20% -43.1% 13% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$96
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses29 / 41
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 70
History coverage128d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 21 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $32 +$10 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$11 +34%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$31 +308%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 -6%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 23 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 23 $13 −$5 -39%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs PARIVISION (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group A Mar 23 $10 −$6 -60%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs BetBoom Team (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group A Mar 23 $25 −$22 -88%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group A Mar 23 $30 −$5 -17%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs GamerLegion (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group Mar 23 $17 −$6 -37%
Dota 2: OG vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 22 $25 +$15 +60%
Dota 2: OG vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 22 $25 −$3 -12%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 22 $21 +$5 +24%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs PARIVISION (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group A Mar 22 $47 −$14 -31%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner Mar 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs paiN Gaming (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B Mar 22 $13 $0 -1%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner Mar 22 $25 +$12 +49%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Mar 22 $7 +$4 +64%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner Mar 22 $21 +$13 +61%
Jets vs. Penguins Mar 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $5 −$1 -12%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs JD Gaming (+2.5) Mar 21 $10 −$1 -11%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? Mar 21 $4 $0 +2%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $15 −$5 -31%
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $5 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Mar 21 $5 +$1 +23%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Panthers vs. Flames Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Miami Open: Luciano Darderi vs Martin Landaluce Mar 21 $29 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Mar 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Mar 21 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Mar 21 $22 −$11 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 21 $15 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 21 $10 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 21 $12 +$1 +10%
Missouri Tigers vs. Miami Hurricanes Mar 21 $34 +$2 +7%
Raptors vs. Nuggets Mar 21 $17 −$1 -7%
Miami Open: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alexander Shevchenko Mar 21 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Hawks vs. Rockets Mar 21 $8 −$4 -44%
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves Mar 21 $8 −$1 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 14¢ $1 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $8 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $8 89d
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs PARIVISION (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group A SELL PARIVISION 33¢ $4 89d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs BetBoom Team (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group A SELL BetBoom Team 8¢ $3 89d
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs PARIVISION (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group A BUY PARIVISION 83¢ $10 89d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs BetBoom Team (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group A BUY BetBoom Team 64¢ $25 89d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group A SELL PARIVISION 50¢ $25 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 225 history records