Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:51:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xcadd…d346 sports 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,465 (+5%) realized +$2,369 · open +$96
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate61%27W / 17L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$869per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$123est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$5,863now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$152
7 days−$152
14 days+$2,238
30 days+$2,238
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$1,713
other 50% +$625
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -31.5% -38.1% 36% 27% -10.9%
≤30d 12 -27.2% -34.1% 42% 33% -0.3%
≤90d 44 -18.4% -26.2% 61% 14% -5.2%
all 44 -18.4% -26.2% 61% 14% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 14% -5.2%
10% -33.3% 7% -14.3%
15% -39.7% 5% -22.6%
20% -45.6% 5% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -29% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$131 vs −$76 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.74 per $1 lost it wins $2.74
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$5,863
Realized+$2,369
Unrealized+$96
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses27 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$123
Open positions19
Markets (closed)44 / 63
History coverage92d
Avg bet$869
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tread FDV above $400M one day after launch No 96¢ 99¢ $1,704 $1,741 +$37 (+2%)
Tread FDV above $300M one day after launch No 90¢ 97¢ $1,377 $1,484 +$107 (+8%)
Tread FDV above $500M one day after launch No 96¢ 99¢ $1,021 $1,048 +$27 (+3%)
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Under 17¢ 18¢ $197 $203 +$6 (+3%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Yes 25¢ 17¢ $200 $133 −$67 (-34%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $80 $83 +$3 (+4%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $79 $80 +$2 (+2%)
Algeria vs. Austria: Neither team to score first? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $19 +$3 +16%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $9,385 +$204 +2%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $102 +$12 +12%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $102 −$102 -99%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $102 +$330 +323%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 23 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 23 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 23 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $11,678 +$2,390 +20%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? May 03 $1,044 −$62 -6%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? Apr 30 $130 +$470 +362%
Spread: 76ers (-5.5) Apr 23 $9 $0 +1%
Spread: 76ers (-8.5) Apr 23 $19 $0 +1%
Spread: 76ers (-1.5) Apr 23 $76 $0 +0%
Spread: 76ers (-4.5) Apr 23 $161 +$2 +1%
Spread: 76ers (-3.5) Apr 23 $175 +$2 +1%
Will USD.AI launch a token by December 31, 2026? Apr 23 $1,376 +$2 +0%
Spread: Magic (-1.5) Apr 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 16 $52 +$12 +23%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $36 −$36 -100%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca Apr 12 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $6,759 +$55 +1%
Will UCLA win the 2026 Women's NCAA Tournament? Apr 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will South Carolina win the 2026 Women's NCAA Tournament? Apr 06 $894 +$1 +0%
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-3.5) Apr 05 $106 −$100 -95%
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-9.5) Apr 05 $8 $0 +1%
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-10.5) Apr 05 $8 $0 +1%
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-5.5) Apr 05 $210 $0 +0%
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-1.5) Apr 05 $5,046 +$5 +0%
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 05 $7,262 +$7 +0%
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-22.5) Apr 01 $10 $0 +2%
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-14.5) Apr 01 $11 $0 +2%
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-15.5) Apr 01 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-18.5) Apr 01 $56 $0 +0%
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-19.5) Apr 01 $56 $0 +0%
Will Tennessee win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 01 $1,543 −$21 -1%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 29 $62 −$59 -95%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 29 $228 −$227 -100%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 29 $24 −$21 -88%
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 28 $1,471 +$29 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $95 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $589 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 86¢ $19 2h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $14 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 99¢ $8 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 99¢ $434 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 99¢ $58 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 99¢ $24 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 99¢ $58 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 98¢ $3,736 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 98¢ $3,199 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 98¢ $249 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 98¢ $97 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 98¢ $17 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,406 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 98¢ $98 2h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $11 2h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $10 2h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 2h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 2h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $19 2h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $29 2h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $10 2h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $18 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,862.90 · official $5,862.90 (match) · 226 history records