Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:17:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xcadf…1f60 sports 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,636 (+3%) realized +$960 · open +$676
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%11W / 7L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$2,885per market
Trades / day20.1pace
Fees−$707est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7,532now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$313
14 days−$5,552
30 days+$988
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,664
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -10.7% -19.2% 33% 33% -13.0%
≤30d 18 +9.5% -0.9% 61% 61% -7.9%
≤90d 18 +9.5% -0.9% 61% 61% -7.9%
all 18 +9.5% -0.9% 61% 61% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.9% 61% -7.9%
10% -10.4% 56% -16.8%
15% ← realistic here -19.1% 44% -24.8%
20% -27.0% 22% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$4,792) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +59% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
20.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,956 vs −$2,932 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$7,532
Realized+$960
Unrealized+$676
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses11 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$707
Open positions4
Markets (closed)18 / 22
History coverage22d
Avg bet$2,885
Trades / day20.1
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) University War 74¢ 80¢ $6,250 $6,751 +$501 (+8%)
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) LYON 62¢ 81¢ $566 $742 +$176 (+31%)
Valorant: Chivas Esports vs LYON - Map 2 Winner LYON 79¢ 76¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Valorant: Chivas Esports vs LYON - Map 1 Winner LYON 79¢ 76¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 16 $2,501 −$2,501 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $3,125 +$2,456 +79%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $2,516 −$267 -11%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group S Jun 07 $1,609 −$1,609 -100%
Valorant: BOOM Esports vs Sharper Esport (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: P Jun 07 $2,346 −$2,346 -100%
Valorant: SwimTrek Blue vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Cha Jun 07 $5,040 −$5,040 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 06 $4,052 +$1,804 +44%
Valorant: FlyQuest RED vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Chan Jun 05 $6,287 +$1,992 +32%
Valorant: Riddle vs Insomnia (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 04 $3,762 −$3,762 -100%
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Gold vs Ghost Gaming GC (BO3) - VCT Game C Jun 04 $5,007 +$1,791 +36%
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs REJECT (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 03 $2,534 +$1,932 +76%
Map Handicap: OX (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) Jun 02 $2,505 +$1,125 +45%
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs Riddle (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage May 30 $1,876 +$4,086 +218%
Valorant: 9z Team vs KRÜ Blaze - Map 1 Winner May 29 $10 +$3 +27%
Valorant: 9z Team vs KRÜ Blaze (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regula May 29 $1,104 +$229 +21%
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) May 29 $4,792 +$1,905 +40%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs MIBR (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas May 29 $2,536 +$4,191 +165%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Playoffs May 26 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Chivas Esports vs LYON - Map 2 Winner BUY LYON 79¢ $20 11m
Valorant: Chivas Esports vs LYON - Map 1 Winner BUY LYON 79¢ $20 11m
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) BUY LYON 62¢ $62 1h
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) BUY LYON 62¢ $62 1h
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) BUY LYON 62¢ $62 1h
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) BUY LYON 62¢ $62 1h
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) BUY LYON 62¢ $62 1h
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) BUY LYON 62¢ $62 1h
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) BUY LYON 62¢ $63 1h
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) BUY LYON 64¢ $52 1h
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) BUY LYON 62¢ $63 1h
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) BUY LYON 61¢ $15 1h
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) BUY LYON 60¢ $3 1h
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY University War 77¢ $137 2h
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY University War 77¢ $11 3h
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY University War 77¢ $328 3h
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY University War 77¢ $74 4h
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY University War 77¢ $201 5h
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY University War 77¢ $15 7h
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY University War 77¢ $79 7h
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY University War 77¢ $200 8h
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY University War 77¢ $71 8h
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY University War 77¢ $258 8h
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY University War 77¢ $203 8h
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY University War 77¢ $126 8h
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY University War 77¢ $135 8h
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY University War 77¢ $20 10h
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY University War 77¢ $27 10h
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY University War 77¢ $46 10h
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY University War 77¢ $70 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,531.58 · official $7,489.21 (match) · 476 history records