Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:11:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CA 0xcae0…21f2 crypto 1324 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,620 (+14%) realized +$2,620 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate84%1117W / 207L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day26.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$945
7 days+$1,987
14 days+$2,039
30 days+$2,279
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,501
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 317 +14.0% +3.2% 82% 43% +1.8%
≤30d 893 +7.2% -3.0% 84% 37% -3.5%
≤90d 1324 +6.2% -3.9% 84% 35% -4.8%
all 1324 +6.2% -3.9% 84% 35% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.9% 35% -4.8%
10% ← realistic here -13.1% 20% -13.9%
15% -21.5% 12% -22.2%
20% -29.2% 9% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$12 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$2,620
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses1117 / 207
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1324 / 1324
History coverage54d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day26.6
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1324 Trades
no open positions (192 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$12 +115%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$10 -51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$17 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$10 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $11 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.86 · official $23.86 (match) · 3157 history records