Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:06:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CA
0xcae1…3f6f
crypto · 1404 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$181 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$181 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$181
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses1022 / 382
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1404 / 1404
History coverage608d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 1404 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$12
14 days−$39
30 days−$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Up 82¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 82¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? No 73¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 50% −$3
crypto 48% −$116
economics 2% −$59
other 0% −$2
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 298 -0.6% -10.1% 82% 39% -10.2%
≤30d 1388 -3.0% -12.2% 73% 51% -11.9%
≤90d 1388 -3.0% -12.2% 73% 51% -11.9%
all 1404 -3.1% -12.4% 73% 50% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 50% -11.3%
10% -20.8% 7% -19.8%
15% -28.4% 1% -27.5%
20% -35.4% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2795 history records