Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:02:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xcae3…eb2e other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$574 (-24%) realized −$79 · open −$495
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$856
crypto 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -21.9% -29.3% 36% 27% -27.0%
≤30d 11 -21.9% -29.3% 36% 27% -27.0%
≤90d 11 -21.9% -29.3% 36% 27% -27.0%
all 11 -21.9% -29.3% 36% 27% -27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.3% 27% -27.0%
10% -36.1% 9% -34.0%
15% -42.3% 9% -40.4%
20% -47.9% 9% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$84 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$79
Unrealized−$495
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage9d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $500 $5 −$495 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Florian Wirtz record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $129 −$110 -86%
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 23 $129 −$102 -79%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $129 −$29 -22%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $180 +$23 +12%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $149 +$30 +20%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $129 −$49 -38%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $129 +$1 +1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $129 −$1 -1%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $258 +$172 +67%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $258 −$249 -96%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $258 −$48 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Florian Wirtz record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $18 1h
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 4¢ $27 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $100 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $203 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $178 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $81 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $130 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $128 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 28¢ $429 1h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $9 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $210 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $52 8d
Will Florian Wirtz record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $129 8d
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 17¢ $129 8d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $129 8d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $129 8d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $129 8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $129 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $129 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $129 8d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $258 8d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $258 8d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $258 8d
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $517 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.41 · official $5.41 (match) · 34 history records