Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:43:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CA 0xcae4…cc88 sports 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL −$292 (-3%) realized −$353 · open +$61
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate63%24W / 14L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$84est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$806now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$197
7 days+$1,205
14 days+$1,455
30 days+$1,559
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$770
other 27% +$1,065
crypto 10% −$214
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +46.0% +32.1% 59% 59% +26.9%
≤30d 38 +24.0% +12.2% 63% 58% +8.8%
≤90d 38 +24.0% +12.2% 63% 58% +8.8%
all 38 +24.0% +12.2% 63% 58% +8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.2% 58% +8.8%
10% +1.5% 53% -1.6%
15% -8.3% 32% -11.1%
20% -17.3% 24% -19.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +36% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$135 vs −$120 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$806
Realized−$353
Unrealized+$61
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses24 / 14
Est. fees paid−$84
Open positions7
Markets (closed)38 / 60
History coverage20d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 40¢ 36¢ $169 $152 −$17 (-10%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 17¢ $100 $142 +$42 (+42%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 100¢ $75 $139 +$64 (+85%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $160 +$112 +70%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 Jun 27 $144 −$142 -99%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $201 +$62 +31%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Curaçao Jun 26 $253 +$164 +65%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $201 +$52 +26%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $62 +$38 +61%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $59 +$41 +70%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $245 −$245 -100%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $593 +$147 +25%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $302 +$90 +30%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $204 +$431 +211%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $103 −$102 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Jun 20 $103 +$918 +894%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $91 −$90 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $74 −$72 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $486 −$481 -99%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $44 −$1 -2%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $721 +$205 +28%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 AND Argentina Jun 17 $758 +$403 +53%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $156 −$4 -3%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $375 −$10 -2%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $158 +$43 +27%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $405 +$95 +23%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $144 +$57 +40%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $28 −$27 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $143 +$59 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $144 +$57 +40%
Will Kosovo win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $170 +$31 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $188 +$13 +7%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $162 +$39 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 07 $49 +$51 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 07 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 07 $96 +$104 +108%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 07 $85 +$16 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 07 $207 −$203 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 07 $116 +$4 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 AND Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 0. BUY 61¢ $200 31m
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 4.5 AND DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 BUY 65¢ $80 39m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 65¢ $144 53m
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 AND Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY 56¢ $86 54m
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $76 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: 2nd H BUY 79¢ $75 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $160 35h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 AN BUY 60¢ $152 35h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 76¢ $201 35h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 1.5 AND Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY 56¢ $228 35h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Curaçao BUY 60¢ $253 35h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $62 3d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $102 3d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $201 3d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $102 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 59¢ $59 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1. BUY 25¢ $133 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 70¢ $245 3d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 92¢ $740 4d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score AND Argentina vs. Austria: BUY 20¢ $205 5d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 77¢ $302 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 5d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 40¢ $172 5d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $103 5d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Portu BUY 32¢ $102 5d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 AND W BUY 19¢ $102 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $805.71 · official $1,167.47 · 155 history records